JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 3:12 AM EDT854
FXUS63 KJKL 250712
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
312 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather and gradually increasing temperatures are forecast
until the middle of the week.
- High temperatures in the lower to mid 90s may set records
Tuesday through Thursday.
- Our next small potential of rain will mainly be late in the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT SUN AUG 25 2024
Benign weather will persist through the short term period. Strong
upper level high pressure will be centered over the middle of the
CONUS while surface high pressure remains just to our east. Our
low level flow will continue to emanate out of the lower level
high and keep low level moisture advection to a minimum. Low level
temperature advection will also be near neutral. Rising
geopotential heights and weak flow atop our dry air mass will
keep skies mostly clear. Sunshine each day will work to
warm/modify the air mass, and dew points will also show a slow
increase as the air mass modifies.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM EDT SUN AUG 25 2024
Strong ridging, both aloft and at the surface, will be in place
across the region to begin the extended period. The upper ridge,
based on the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF, will be centered
over the mid-Mississippi Valley, while the surface ridge looks to
be centered over the lower Tennessee Valley and southeastern
CONUS. These ridges will expand eastward with time, and will allow
for much warmer than normal temperatures across our forecast area
for most of the period. Daily highs from Tuesday through Friday
should average in the low to mid 90s, with a few higher values
possible Tuesday and Wednesday.
We will also a few fleeting chances of rain Tuesday night through
Thursday night, as weak disturbances aloft moving the northern
stream skirt our area along the norther periphery of the surface
ridge. Much better rain chances will be in play Friday through
Saturday night, as a cold front moves in from the northwest and
interacts with an ample supply of hot and moist air that will be
in place across the region. Temperatures on Friday and Saturday
will still be quite warm, but should gradually cool down a bit
compared to what we see at the beginning of the extended. Highs on
Friday may only crack the lower 90s, while daytime maxes on
Saturday are forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s, as more
widespread cloud cover and rain move through.
The initial weather concern in the extended will be the heat and
humidity mid- week, that could allow heat indices to reach or
slightly exceed 100 degrees. A secondary hazard will be the
potential for cloud to ground lightning we see with any
thunderstorms, especially Friday and Saturday, as the cold front
moves through.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SUN AUG 25 2024
Valley fog with IFR or worse conditions will grow in depth and
breadth in the deeper valleys through sunrise, and then dissipate
in the morning. The fog could affect KLOZ and especially KSME at
times. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds are expected
through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 3:12 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
