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296 FXUS64 KMOB 190828AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL328 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Tuesday night)Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024After a quick uptick in storm activity, storms have dissipated and/or moved out of the area. This has left muggy conditions across a large portion of the area, with dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 70s. The previously advertised cold front, which will provide some much needed relief from the oppressive heat the last few days, remains to our north and will slowly sag southward through the day. Prior to its arrival, isolated to scattered storms will remain possible along our southern areas, but these chances will come to an end by the afternoon. The upper level trough will remain along the eastern CONUS, with northwest flow aloft continuing through the near term period. This, along with the cold front, will bring much drier air across the region and limit rain chances through midweek. Additionally, dewpoints will drop into the lower to mid 60s for much of the area tonight. Despite the cold front and drier air, ample sunshine and heating will allow highs to climb into the lower 90s across the north to the upper 90s along the coast today. The good news is that with the lower dewpoints, heat indices will be several degrees below heat advisory criteria. Even better news, clear skies and calm winds will provide very good radiational cooling conditions and overnight lows will fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s tonight. This airmass will be further settled in our area on Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows will fall into the lower to mid 60s areawide Tuesday night. /73&&.SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 The mid level trough will maintain its hold on the weather pattern for much of the eastern CONUS through the latter half of the week. The forecast area will remain on the western periphery of the trough, with northwest flow allowing shortwaves to move through the area. A boundary (the front moving through currently) will be just off the coast at the start of the period, and is expected to lift northward Wednesday night. After a dry day on Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms will develop along the convergence axis, enhanced by the weak shortwaves aloft. Guidance is fairly consistent on stalling this convergence axis on Thursday, with it meandering north/south during the day. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected in our coastal waters, with chances decreasing as you move inland. Although this activity will be diurnally enhanced, with the lift along the boundary and some forcing associated with the embedded shortwaves, the chance for showers/storms will linger into the overnight hours. By Friday, the aforementioned trough will begin to lift to the northeast as a ridge builds in from the southern Plains. The surface boundary will dissipate for the most part, though a weak convergence axis looks to set up once again along our coastal counties. This pattern will persist through the weekend, as the ridge to our west struggles to move eastward and we remain situated between the ridge and a building trough in the Gulf. The northern portion of the ridge will provide enough of an influence over our northern tier of counties, with subsidence limiting the rain chances in these areas. Meanwhile, a series of shortwaves will likely move along the coast, with the chance for showers and thunderstorms continuing into the weekend. The better chance for showers/storms will be along and south of I-10.Temperatures through the period will be near seasonal norms, with highs warming into the lower 90s. Overnight lows will be fairly pleasant for portions of the area, with lows falling into the lower 60s on Thursday. These cooler temps will be short-lived, as we overnight lows warm back into the 70s by the weekend. /73&&.MARINE...Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024An offshore flow will develop during the day today, as a frontalboundary pushes offshore. No significant wind/wave impacts are expected through Thursday. /73&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 97 72 94 68 93 69 94 71 / 20 0 0 0 0 10 30 20 Pensacola 97 75 95 73 94 73 93 74 / 20 0 0 0 10 10 40 30 Destin 96 76 94 74 93 75 92 74 / 30 0 0 0 10 20 40 40 Evergreen 94 67 92 64 92 65 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 Waynesboro 95 68 92 65 91 63 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 Camden 90 67 88 63 87 65 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 Crestview 97 69 95 67 95 69 94 69 / 10 0 0 0 10 10 40 20 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
