ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 21, 2:41 PM EDT299
FXUS61 KILN 211841
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
241 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control over the region for the
remainder of the week, allowing for dry conditions. Temperatures
slowly return to climatological normals by the end of the work
week, then climb to above normal by the start of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Dry and quiet conditions continue as the surface high pressure
continues to stretch down into our area from the Hudson Bay.
Daytime cu dissipate as we head into the evening hours.
Again, radiative cooling processes take over and we'll cool to
the low 50s/ upper 40s again during the overnight hours. With
mostly clear skies and light winds, we should again see patchy
river valley fog through the area. Outside of moisture sources,
we do not anticipate any visibility issues given ample dry air
still in place (PWATs 1-2 sigmas below normal still).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Blocking pattern continues to slowly shift east and the center
of the ridge will move closer to the ILN FA on Thursday.
Consequentially, the large scale subsidence continues to keep us
dry and we'll see an uptick in temperatures; daytime highs will
rise into the upper 70s. A few afternoon cu are again possible
but otherwise, mostly sunny skies are in the forecast.
Overnight lows again fall into the low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models are generally similar in their upcoming synoptic pattern
depiction that takes us into the weekend and into early next week. A
mid level ridge (anomalous high in strength for the time of year)
will slowly build north and east into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley through this period. This pattern will result in increasing
temperatures each day along with some increase in
dewpoints/humidity. Will keep a dry forecast going into this
weekend, although some weak mid level disturbances moving southeast
through the building ridge axis will bring more clouds, and perhaps
a low chance of a shower/storm. The next chance thereafter may not
come until the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe as a weak front moves
into the region. Highs in the lower to mid 80s on Friday will warm
into the lower to perhaps mid 90s by Monday/Tuesday. Upper 80s to
lower 90s will likely persist into Wednesday. These high
temperatures by Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday will be some 10 degrees
above normal for late August. Lows in the 50s to lower 60s Friday
night will warm into the mid and upper 60s by next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions through the period with the exception of KLUK.
High pressure continues to sit over the region and we remain
dry. Scattered afternoon cu will dissipate this evening and
skies will clear out. Again, there is a signal for river valley
fog with weak winds and clear skies, so have dropped LUK to
MVFR with a tempo IFR during early Thursday morning hours.
Any fog should dissipate shortly after sunrise and winds will
remain out of the northeast, around 5-10 knots. Again, some
diurnal cu might blossom during the afternoon hours.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...CA
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 21, 2:41 PM EDT---------------
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