JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 21, 8:25 PM EDT888
FXUS63 KJKL 220025 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
825 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures are expected through Thursday. Above
normal temperatures then return by the weekend.
- Dry weather will persist into the first part of next week.
- Heat indices approaching 100 degrees return for early next.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2024
00Z sfc analysis shows high pressure working deeper into the area
from the north. This is providing a pleasant evening of cooling
temperatures and comfortable humidities along with slackening
winds under mostly clear skies. Currently, temperatures are
running in the mid 60s on the ridges and in the more open terrain
with some upper 50s found in the sheltered valleys. Meanwhile,
amid light northeast winds, dewpoints vary from the mid 40s north
to the mid 50s south. Expect a decent ridge to valley split
tonight along with river valley fog formation - especially for the
far east. Look for a potential record low tonight at JKL and many
spots falling into the 40s by dawn. Have updated the forecast
mainly to include the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky
grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 257 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2024
Aloft, H500 heights rise from 583 to 590 decameters through the
short term as low pressure and its associated trough lift northeast
out of New England and the eastern CONUS while a high pressure
centered over Texas noses its way into the Ohio and Tennessee
valley regions. At the surface high pressure over the Great Lakes
drifts eastward to the central Appalachians. H850 temps climb from
about 8C to around 12C by the end of the period.
Sensible weather features continued cool conditions under fair
skies, but with an overall moderating trend in temperatures,
particularly for daily highs. With ridging aloft and strong surface
high pressure, subsidence will combine with diurnal heating to keep
the boundary layer mixed out during the afternoon, dropping surface
dew points anywhere from the low 40 to the low 50s through the short
term window. Consequently, seasonably strong radiative cooling
during the nights will keep overnight lows below normal, generally 5-
10 degrees below normal, or in the 40s and 50s through the period.
For afternoon highs, we can expect a moderating trend with
temperatures warming from today's mid 70s to around 80 degrees
tomorrow. Valley fog will develop during the overnight periods, with
the most significant fog found in the vicinity of water sources.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2024
The period begins with upper-level ridge building across the
southern CONUS. Upper-level height rises with surface warming and
continued dry weather is expected as surface high pressure remains
firmly in place over much of the eastern CONUS. Temperatures on
Friday afternoon will climb into the mid-80s and by the end of the
weekend into the low-90s. Overnight lows are also expected to
increase as well as lows topping out in the upper-50s to low-60s by
Saturday night and persist through the remainder of the period.
Fortunately, the air mass, that's building in from the south, is a
drier airmass; therefore, heat indices will be fairly comparable to
forecast highs through the early part of next week; however,
increasing moisture on Tuesday will allow for daytime heat indices
to nudge a little bit closer to 100 degrees which will occur through
the remainder of the period. Persistent high pressure will keep
largely mostly skies overnight which will keep the increased
likelihood of valley fog each night which will burn off by mid-
morning and the area will return to full sunshine and dry weather.
Nonetheless, a quiet forecast period is expected as high pressure
remains dominate. Temperatures will be around seasonal averages with
the return of near 100 degree heat indices for early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2024
VFR flight conditions will hold through the period. Expect to see
a return of river valley fog again overnight but no impacts
for any of our terminals. Otherwise, winds will be light and
variable through the period - at less than 10 kts.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...RAY/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 21, 8:25 PM EDT---------------
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