ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 20, 8:56 AM EDT593
FXUS61 KILN 201256
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
856 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and a dry but cool airmass will remain in place
across the Ohio Valley through Wednesday. A warming trend will
develop through the remainder of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
No major changes from the previous forecast. Some thinking that
there may be an isolated sprinkle in central Ohio as northerly
flow moves off of the lake, but given dry air in place, chose to
not include in the forecast for now. High temperatures still on
track to be about 10 degrees below normal today.
Previous discussion-->
Northerly flow will continue across the
area through the day as surface high pressure slowly builds in
from the northwest. With a cool airmass in place and weak low
level CAA continuing into early afternoon, some sct-bkn
stratocumulus can be expected at times into this afternoon,
especially across eastern portions of our area. Temperatures
will remain well below normal with afternoon highs only in the
low to mid 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will continue to build down into the area
tonight and Wednesday, with skies becoming mostly clear.
Temperatures will be seasonably cool tonight with overnight
lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs on Wednesday will be
mostly in the mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended forecast seems to be well in hand with a consistent
warming trend occurring. Morning lows around 50 on Thursday will
warm into the upper 70s to around 80 during the day. This will
likely be the last daytime high temps in the 70s for the foreseeable
future. After this, Thursday night's low from 50-55 will see Friday
highs reach into the 80s again, from 82 in the west and north to 87
in the south and southeast. This jump from highs on Thursday to
Friday will be the most notable increase of about 5-7 degrees.
Overnight lows will be near 60, and likely be the last of any
readings in the 50s for a while.
Saturday will continue the rise into the mid 80s to around 90 with
lows in the mid 60s. Sunday through Tuesday should not see more than
a degree or two of change during the period with highs around 90.
Likewise, lows Sunday and Monday mornings will be from 65-70,
coolest on Monday morning.
Mass fields do not look to show any significant departures either
run to run or model to model. Upper low in the Northeast will eject
northeastward Thursday night and Friday, leaving a generally zonal
flow in the Ohio Valley for Friday and overnight. Heights do not
change overly much during this time but the ridge over the mid
section of the country will amplify, putting the upper flow back to
northwest in our area beginning late Saturday. The upper ridge axis
begins to orient sw-ne and overtops the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, with
little height changes noted between Sunday morning onward.
A dry forecast with generally clear to partly cloudy skies will be
the rule for this extended period.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered to possibly broken cu will develop across the area
today in continued northerly flow. These clouds will dissipate
heading into this evening as high pressure builds into the
area. Tough to rule out some patchy river valley fog later
tonight so will allow for some MVFR vsby restrictions at KLUK
late in the period. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CA/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...JGL
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 20, 8:56 AM EDT---------------
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