LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 21, 6:48 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...035
FXUS63 KLMK 211048
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
648 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry weather and below normal temperatures are expected through
Friday. Above normal temperatures return this weekend and into
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024
The forecast remains relatively unchanged and nearly a carbon copy
of yesterday thanks to a strong sprawling sfc high pressure
currently over Lake Michigan and Lake Superior that will slowly
build in over the Ohio Valley during through the short term. Aloft,
we continue to be situated between a closed low over New York state
and a strong amplified ridge over the central CONUS. This will
continue to provide a cool and dry northerly flow over the region.
Forecast model soundings show strong subsidence, we may get a few
diurnal cumulus to form and soundings show we could likely see winds
turn a bit gusty with afternoon mixing. Gusts of 15-20 mph are not
out of the question and also expect drier air to mix down lowering
dew points than suggested guidance. Could see dew points into the
mid/upper 40s during the afternoon. Temperatures will warm this
afternoon into the mid 70s with urban locations warming to near 80.
Skies will clear and winds will diminish with the loss of daytime
heating as the sfc will build over northern Indiana and northern OH
overnight. Continued trend from previous forecasts to go below NBM
guidance with lows generally in the low 50s with even a few upper
40s possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024
Thursday through Saturday Night...
On the synoptic scale, the multi-model consensus is in agreement
with an omega blocking pattern being in place as the start of the
period. This pattern looks to remain quite stable through the end
of the week. Towards the end of the week and the weekend, the upper
trough axis along the western US coast is forecast to amplify and
this will lead to amplification of the downstream ridge across the
Plains. As this occurs, the east coast closed low will move off
into the Canadian maritimes and allow the ridging across the Plains
to push a little eastward into the Midwest and the western Ohio
Valley. High pressure at the surface will remain in control of our
weather and dry weather conditions are expected through this portion
of the forecast period. Given the multi-model consensus with little
spread in the ensembles, forecast confidence here is quite high.
Temperatures through the period will continue to run below normal.
Highs on Thursday will warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Thursday night lows will likely exhibit a decent gradient across the
region. Lows will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s across the
Bluegrass, but will range from the mid-upper 50s in the I-65
corridor and points west. As the center of the surface high
pressure moves east of the area, we'll get into a return flow
pattern starting on Friday which will lead to an increase in
temperatures as we go into the weekend. Highs on Friday will warm
into the low-mid 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. Highs on
Saturday will be in the mid-upper 80s with overnight lows in the
upper 60s.
Sunday through Tuesday...
As we head into the back half of the weekend, the upper trough axis
over the western US will head eastward, while the downstream ridge
pushes a little more east into the Midwest. Sunday should feature
temperatures back in the upper 80s in most areas, though areas west
of I-65 may hit 90 Sunday afternoon.
We'll remain on the periphery of the ridge axis for Monday and
Tuesday, but will need to be on guard for some perturbations that
may lead to some sort of MCS development. As of now, the multi-
model consensus keeps much of this activity to our west/northwest.
The continued southwest flow will allow the column to moisten
through the period and dewpoints will increase through the period.
Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be seasonal with highs in the
upper 80s to the lower 90s. NBM guidance looks too hot in this time
frame with mid 90s, likely due to the GFS warm bias. The core of
the heat looks to remain out to our west from eastern KS into MO and
possibly into far western KY. Relief may come toward the middle of
next week as the aforementioned western US trough heads east and
attempts to drive a frontal boundary into the region.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 648 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming TAF period. High
pressure will continue be in control of the weather pattern for the
next few days. We'll start off with mainly clear skies over our
eastern terminals, but we'll have some high clouds out across the
west. Expect another diurnal Cu field popping up by mid-late
morning and lingering through the afternoon. Winds will pick up
again out of the northeast and will be gusty through the afternoon
before slackening toward sunset. The outlook for tonight and
Thursday calls for continued VFR conditions.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 21, 6:48 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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