PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 18, 6:58 PM EDT063
FXUS61 KPBZ 182258 AAA
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
658 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers along with some isolated afternoon thunderstorms
will continue through Monday, followed by dry, seasonably cool
conditions the remainder of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Isolated to scattered showers continue through the evening.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
For the evening update...have made changes to the PoPs to better
capture current conditions and the latest hires guidance.
Surface cold front should clear the area shortly after sunset
and then the trough axis will swing through. This will keep in
the risk for showers through much of the evening hours.
Overnight lows and cloud cover were adjusted as well.
Previous discussion...
The trough will shift east overnight, with the axis crossing
Pittsburgh early Monday morning. This will leave the region
under cool northwest flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Residual showers with cooler temperatures are likely on
Monday, diminishing Monday evening.
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Residual diurnally-driven showers are possible on Monday with
some lake enhancement possible north of I-80. These will
eventually diminish Monday evening. Area temperatures will drop
well below the daily average, resulting in highs in the 60s and
lower 70s. Overnight lows will fall back into the 50s...with
lows dropping down to values not seen since early June.
Strong height falls and cold air advection will provide cool conditions
Tuesday (~10 degrees below average). The colder air will likely
lead to CU development Tuesday, but it will remain dry.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Long range ensembles support dry weather with seasonally cool-
to-near-normal temperature through the week.
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Long range ensembles indicate that upper low pressure will
slowly meander across the Northeast through much of the week
while fairly amplified ridging continues over the Rockies. This
puts us squarely under northwest flow through the middle of the
week, favoring dry conditions with any precipitation reliant on
strong shortwaves. Temperatures should slowly climb through the
week with building surface high pressure and eventual return
flow by late week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Daytime mixing is transitioning the stratocu coverage to a more
convective cumulus look as with higher cloud bases as CIGs
return to VFR after 18-19z (a bit later for FKL/DUJ). Scattered
to numerous showers under daytime heating and cool air aloft
have developed with marginal instability. Thus far, haven't seen
much indication of lightning potential with stunted updraft
heights, but can't entirely rule it out for the remainder of the
afternoon. Confidence in impacts to any terminal is low. A
brief period of VIS restrictions is possible in any shower.
Southwest wind will veer to northwest in the wake of a passing
boundary at 5-10 knots with periodic gusts to 20 knots expected
through the remainder of the afternoon.
Guidance then favors a 60-90% chance of IFR or lower restrictions
returning overnight Sunday night from north to south with
remnant boundary layer moisture reinforced under northwesterly
flow and increasing subsidence. Given a light gradient wind
still in place, restrictions should primarily come from
CIGs.
.Outlook...
Periodic restrictions and showers and thunderstorms are possible
through early Monday as low pressure slowly crosses the region.
VFR conditions return by Tuesday under high pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...22/88
SHORT TERM...22/88
LONG TERM...Rackley
AVIATION...MLB
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 18, 6:58 PM EDT---------------
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