PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 18, 6:31 AM CDT168
FXUS63 KPAH 181131
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
631 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An isolated thunderstorm is possible today to the east of a Mt
Carmel Illinois to Elkton Kentucky line. A brief heavy
downpour and sporadic lightning will be the primary concerns.
- A prolonged period of dry weather is expected this coming week.
- Temperatures and humidity levels will be below normal through
Thursday before a warming trend commences next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024
As a disturbance drops south around the Great Lakes upper
low/trough, it could carve out just enough instability to force
an isolated thunderstorm or two in the far east today. This
could get going around 15Z and may be east of the region by 21Z.
Brief heavy downpours and sporadic lightning can be expected
with any thunderstorms today. The forecast for tonight through
next weekend is dry!
Northwest flow and high pressure at the surface will dominate
through at least Thursday. The coolest days will be Tuesday and
Wednesday when highs will be 5-10 degrees below normal and lows
around 10 degrees below normal. It will definitely be a little
taste of fall.
There is reasonable agreement that a weak surface trough will
move westward into the Quad State Thursday and that will lead to
a modest increase in dewpoints at least over the southeast half
of the region. Aloft, guidance is not in as good of agreement
in the evolution of the southern Plains upper high. However, the
general consensus builds it toward the Quad State, if not
directly overhead. This will lead to weak flow aloft, but will
not have much influence on the high pressure at the surface.
Winds are expected to become southerly Friday into the weekend,
but trajectories will still be coming out of the surface high
to our southeast, so moisture return will be minimal, and the
warming trend will likely be slower than the NBM currently
indicates. Temperatures will begin a gradual climb on Thursday,
but will struggle to warm above normal over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024
Northwest winds will gust 15-20kts for much of the day, then
become light tonight. A brief MVFR ceiling will be possible this
morning at the northern sites. Widely scattered showers are
possible at KEVV and KOWB through the day. A thunderstorm cannot
be ruled out. Between the fresh dry air and a persistent light
breeze tonight, fog development is not expected.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 18, 6:31 AM CDT---------------
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