IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 1:17 PM EDT815
FXUS63 KIND 191717
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
117 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry with below normal temperatures and lower humidity beginning
today.
- Temperatures return to near or slightly above normal next weekend.
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 850 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
As mixing increases, band of thin low stratus currently observed
from near Kokomo and Anderson southwestward to Terre Haute and
Vincennes should slowly diminish through late morning. We have made
adjustments to near-term sky coverage grids to account for
operational trends and these expectations. Enough PBL moisture will
be present for a fairly robust cumulus field through the afternoon,
diminishing this evening.
There remains some uncertainty on temperatures today, though the
margin between the warmer statistical/MOS and colder raw model
guidance is only a few degrees. We will nudge toward warmer
statistical guidance given the pattern.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
Would not rule out overnight fog based on clearing skies seen on IR
imagery and low temperature and dew point depression spreads.
Otherwise, dry weather is in store today and tonight. Cu
development progs suggest scattered to broken diurnal cu will form
this afternoon. Meanwhile, H-Res soundings suggest deep mixing which
should result in a modest northerly breeze this afternoon.
Even with plenty of sunshine, the northerly winds should result in
below normal temperatures, mostly in the 70s but perhaps around 80
southwest. This fits nicely within DESI Grand-ensemble 25th and
75th percentiles.
Surface high pressure combined with the dry column suggests little
cloud cover tonight. Upstream dew points in the 50s should advect
into central Indiana by the afternoon. This along with the clear
skies will mean overnight lows in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
An amplified, blocked upper ridge will continue to be set up over
the south-central plains for much of the week. This will place
central Indiana under northwesterly flow, ushering in a dry and
relatively cool airmass. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below
normal for this time of year with highs in the 70s and lows in the
50s. With the dry air settling in, clear to mostly sunny skies are
expected for midweek.
Towards the end of the week and into the weekend, the ridge will
start to push eastward, allowing a return of warmer temperatures
that look to swing back into the above normal category. We may even
see highs near 90 come Saturday and/or Sunday. While moisture will
increase some with the ridge (expecting dew points to return to the
60s), doesn't appear to be enough to prompt any precipitation
concerns.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 117 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
Impacts:
- Brief MVFR stratus through 19z
- Gusts 15-20 knots until early evening
Discussion:
Satellite shows the mixing process slowly reducing more prevelant
stratus and a scattered/broken cumulus field evolving. As cloud
bases increase, VFR conditions will return at all sites by 19z. Dry
advection and loss of heating will result in diminishing clouds this
evening. Wind gusts will subside as well.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRB
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...BRB
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 1:17 PM EDT---------------
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