IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 18, 9:51 PM EDT621
FXUS63 KIND 190151
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
951 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry with below normal temperatures and lower humidity beginning
Monday.
- Temperatures return to near or slightly above normal next
weekend.
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024
A few lingering showers remain over far eastern portions of
central Indiana. These will likely continue for a few hours as the
forcing closer to the low center allows for some elevated
convection. Limited mid level lapse rates and cloud tops should
limit any lightning strikes for occurring.
There is a chance for low lying patchy fog over clearing areas
tonight. Currently this threat looks too isolated and limited to
put into the forecast, but is something to be monitored overnight
in case of any areas that overperform.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024
Backside of a large low pressure system continues to impact the area
this afternoon as it gradually pushes eastward. Isolated to widely
scattered diurnal showers have developed, helped along both by weak
instability and subtle secondary troughs pivoting around the surface
low. Though isolated rumbles of thunder will remain possible through
the late afternoon, none have thus far been detected in the area.
These showers will peak in coverage and intensity at or just after
peak heating over the next hour or two, and begin to wane late this
afternoon, coming to an end by mid evening.
Occasionally breezy conditions associated with the enhanced surface
pressure gradient will continue through the afternoon, also
weakening in typical diurnal fashion this evening.
Some clearing is expected this evening, though cloud cover may build
back westward a bit overnight as a final subtle upper level impulse
approaches and increasing subsidence from an encroaching surface
high both influence the region.
Cloud cover and dewpoints remaining up a bit should keep lows in the
low 60s across the area.
Monday will be pleasant by late August standards, with scattered to
broken fair weather cumulus developing and some breeziness due to
the continued surface pressure gradient as the high moves in behind
the departing low. The cloud cover and weak cold advection will
limit diurnal warming, with highs likely to top out in the mid 70s
to near 80 with steadily lowering humidity.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024
An amplified blocking synoptic-scale pattern will be present this
coming week, placing our region in northwesterly flow. Temperatures
will be 5-10 degrees below mid-August climo through mid week, with a
dry continental air mass in place. The cP air mass will be
reinforced with an even drier air mass by Tuesday as a shortwave
trough moves south-southeastward within the broader eastern trough,
and becomes dominant as it closes off. This will keep the
continental air mass in through mid week.
Before this drier push, there may be enough residual PBL moisture
and favorable MSLP pattern for patchy fog Tuesday morning.
Late this week cluster analysis shows a split with regards to how
far the eastern low progresses, and considerable overlap between
GEFS- EPS- and Canadian-based ensemble members, so there is some
uncertainty on how quickly we warm up, but the pattern late this
week into the weekend looks considerably warmer (+5-7 2-m
temperature anomalies by Sunday).
Precipitable water anomalies are negative through the end of the
week, so high confidence on being precipitation-free. Modest
moisture return this weekend will bring the humidity up some, but
not as much as this previous pattern.
Early indications are that the Day 8-14 period will at least start
of with anomalous ridging and heat, and generally below normal
precipitation chances. There is some indication this could
transition back toward a ridge-west/trough-east slightly cooler
pattern for us toward the end of that 7-day period.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 651 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024
Impacts:
- Wind gusts this afternoon and again Monday afternoon in the mid to
high teens range.
- Widely scattered showers this afternoon.
Discussion:
Widely scattered showers should begin to diminish shortly
following 00Z issuance time. Brief category restrictions are
possible through 02Z but VFR should be the primary category
through the TAF period.
Some clearing is likely, though clouds may redevelop to the west
overnight under the upper low as it slowly exits. Within clear
slots, very brief MVFR fog is possible near daybreak, but will
keep out for now given high uncertainty.
Scattered to broken VFR cumulus will redevelop on Monday.Winds
will generally be northerly through the period, with sustained
winds 8-11KT much of the period, and gusts tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Updike
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...Updike
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 18, 9:51 PM EDT---------------
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