CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 1:53 AM EDT322
FXUS61 KCLE 190553
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
153 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will continue to drift east towards New England today,
keeping a surface trough over the area through Monday night. High
pressure will build across the area on Tuesday and continue to
influence the area into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1:53 AM EDT Update...
Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model
guidance. No changes appeared necessary.
Previous Discussion...
Scattered showers have begun to develop this afternoon as a
surface trough pivots across our area behind a departing low
moving towards Ontario. The bulk of support for these showers is
in the upper levels and associated with deep moisture
convergence with very little mesoscale ascent helping. Currently
CAPE values remains 1000 J/kg or less across the area with
essentially no shear. This should prevent any of these showers
to become severe, although scattered thunder is possible,
especially from now until 00Z Monday. There is a potential for
locally heavy rainfall given PWATs of 1.2-1.5 inches and deep
warm cloud layers, but with quick moving storm motion, the
flooding threat is minimal. Overall QPF amounts with this update
still range from 0.1-0.2" with isolated areas up to 0.5"
possible in far NE OH and NW PA where WPC has issued a Day 1
marginal ERO highlighting that area. Overall impacts should
remain minor and be isolated to low lying areas, including
underpasses.
After 00Z Monday, the extent of precipitation coverage will decrease
as the primary driver of showers will be limited to lake
enhancement. With a northerly flow expected, cooling 850mb
temperatures, and warm lake temperatures, lake induce instability
should be able to maintain showers for areas near Lorain County east
through the typical snowbelt. These showers will remain light in
nature and will diminish west to east through the day on Monday as
high pressure begins to build in and move a drier airmass over the
area. By Monday night, all showers should dissipate and leave dry
conditions across the entire area.
Through this period, temperatures will gradually begin to drop with
overnight lows tonight dropping into the low to mid 60s before
cooling nearly 10 degrees for Monday night with lows dropping into
the low to mid 50s. Highs on Monday will be cool, reaching into the
mid 60s to low 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Occluded surface low and accompanying upper level trough will
continue to exit the region to the east surface high pressure over
the Upper Midwest builds east toward the Lower Great Lakes region
through the short term. Expecting generally quiet conditions with a
mostly clear sky with below normal temperatures and low
humidity as northerly flow aids in CAA.
Cooler on Tuesday with highs in NW PA in the mid 60s to low 70s
across Northern Ohio. Slightly warmer by Wednesday with highs in the
upper 60s in NW PA and mid 70s across Northern Ohio. Overnight lows
will dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s both Tuesday and
Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Aforementioned surface high pressure and broad ridge aloft will
continue to build overhead through the long term period.
Temperatures will warm through the period with highs in the mid to
upper 70s on Thursday increasing into the mid to upper 80s by Sunday
as the ridge build east of the region and low-level flow turns more
southerly. Overnight lows in the mid 50s Thursday night will settle
in the mid 60s by the end of the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
W'erly to NW'erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect
our region through 06Z/Tues. At the surface, a trough exits very
slowly E'ward as a ridge builds from the Upper Midwest. Our
regional surface winds will vary between NW'erly and NNE'erly
around 5 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots or so are expected at
times, especially between ~14Z and ~22Z/Mon.
Lake-enhanced/effect rain showers over and generally south of
Lake Erie are expected to end gradually from west to east
between ~12Z and ~22Z/Mon. Visibility is expected to trend VFR
in precip and outside precip as well. Widespread low clouds and
associated MVFR/occasional IFR ceilings are expected to
scatter-out generally from west to east between ~18Z/Mon and
~01Z/Tues.
Outlook...VFR likely Tuesday through Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement remain in effect
from Maumee Bay to the Islands 8 PM tonight through 4 AM Tuesday and
from The Islands to Ripley NY from 8 PM tonight through 5 PM
Tuesday. Low pressure exits the east as surface troughing remains in
place through Monday. High pressure begins to build east toward the
lake on Tuesday, though a tightening pressure gradient and northerly
winds will keep higher wave heights in place through much of
Tuesday.
As the high continues to build east wind speeds will decrease and
wave heights will subside Tuesday evening/early Wednesday morning
below small craft criteria. Generally northerly flow less than 10
knots continues through Thursday night before turning generally
southerly to southwesterly but remaining below 10 knots through
the weekend.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for OHZ003-007.
Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday afternoon for
OHZ009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday afternoon for PAZ001.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142-143.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ144>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Iverson
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 1:53 AM EDT---------------
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