CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 18, 3:40 PM EDT091
FXUS61 KCLE 181940
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
340 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will continue to drift east towards New England today,
keeping a surface trough over the area through Monday night. High
pressure will build across the area on Tuesday and continue to
influence the area into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered showers have begun to develop this afternoon as a surface
trough pivots across our area behind a departing low moving towards
Ontario. The bulk of support for these showers is in the upper
levels and associated with deep moisture convergence with very
little mesoscale ascent helping. Currently CAPE values remains 1000
J/kg or less across the area with essentially no shear. This should
prevent any of these showers to become severe, although scattered
thunder is possible, especially from now until 00Z Monday. There is
a potential for locally heavy rainfall given PWATs of 1.2-1.5 inches
and deep warm cloud layers, but with quick moving storm motion, the
flooding threat is minimal. Overall QPF amounts with this update
still range from 0.1-0.2" with isolated areas up to 0.5" possible in
far NE OH and NW PA where WPC has issued a Day 1 marginal ERO
highlighting that area. Overall impacts should remain minor and
be isolated to low lying areas, including underpasses.
After 00Z Monday, the extent of precipitation coverage will decrease
as the primary driver of showers will be limited to lake
enhancement. With a northerly flow expected, cooling 850mb
temperatures, and warm lake temperatures, lake induce instability
should be able to maintain showers for areas near Lorain County east
through the typical snowbelt. These showers will remain light in
nature and will diminish west to east through the day on Monday as
high pressure begins to build in and move a drier airmass over the
area. By Monday night, all showers should dissipate and leave dry
conditions across the entire area.
Through this period, temperatures will gradually begin to drop with
overnight lows tonight dropping into the low to mid 60s before
cooling nearly 10 degrees for Monday night with lows dropping into
the low to mid 50s. Highs on Monday will be cool, reaching into the
mid 60s to low 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Occluded surface low and accompanying upper level trough will
continue to exit the region to the east surface high pressure over
the Upper Midwest builds east toward the Lower Great Lakes region
through the short term. Expecting generally quiet conditions with a
mostly clear sky with below normal temperatures and low
humidity as northerly flow aids in CAA.
Cooler on Tuesday with highs in NW PA in the mid 60s to low 70s
across Northern Ohio. Slightly warmer by Wednesday with highs in the
upper 60s in NW PA and mid 70s across Northern Ohio. Overnight lows
will dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s both Tuesday and
Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Aforementioned surface high pressure and broad ridge aloft will
continue to build overhead through the long term period.
Temperatures will warm through the period with highs in the mid to
upper 70s on Thursday increasing into the mid to upper 80s by Sunday
as the ridge build east of the region and low-level flow turns more
southerly. Overnight lows in the mid 50s Thursday night will settle
in the mid 60s by the end of the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Most terminals have rebounded to VFR conditions this afternoon
with scattered ceilings ranging from 1-2kft. Isolated terminals
across NE OH, including KYNG, continue to be impacted by
MVFR/IFR ceilings, which should gradually improve this afternoon
to allow for a period of VFR. Looking at radar, scattered
showers have begun to develop across the area and are expected
to continue through the evening. These showers have the
potential to produce heavy rainfall, which may briefly lower
visibilities at terminals they impact. In addition, a rumble or
two of thunder cannot be ruled out, but given a lack of
instability and shear to maintain any storms that develop not
expected anything widespread. Given the scattered nature of
convective potential this afternoon, opted to handle the mention
of thunderstorm potential and diminished conditions in a TEMPO
primarily from 20-00Z. After sunset, any lingering thunder
potential will dwindle, leaving scattered showers primarily
across the eastern terminals.
Overnight, KTOL should remain VFR as the axis of the trough
shifts east. However, all other terminals will linger in the
MVFR to IFR range as lower ceilings once again settle across the
area. Highest confidence in IFR ceilings is at KMFD, KCAK, and
KYNG. Conditions will gradually begin to improve from west to
east on Monday for most terminals with the potential of light
showers lingering across the typical snowbelt areas.
Winds this afternoon will persist from the northwest at 5-10
knots, gradually becoming northerly by 04Z tonight. These winds
will quickly ramp up by Monday morning, increasing at all
terminals to 10-12 knots with sustained winds up to 15 knots
possible for terminals along the lakeshore. By late morning,
wind gusts of 20-25 knots are possible with the strongest gusts
expected at KERI and KCLE.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through
Monday mainly in the afternoon and early evening. Widespread
non-VFR appears most likely in low ceilings Sunday night into
Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement remain in effect
from Maumee Bay to the Islands 8 PM tonight through 4 AM Tuesday and
from The Islands to Ripley NY from 8 PM tonight through 5 PM
Tuesday. Low pressure exits the east as surface troughing remains in
place through Monday. High pressure begins to build east toward the
lake on Tuesday, though a tightening pressure gradient and northerly
winds will keep higher wave heights in place through much of
Tuesday.
As the high continues to build east wind speeds will decrease and
wave heights will subside Tuesday evening/early Wednesday morning
below small craft criteria. Generally northerly flow less than 10
knots continues through Thursday night before turning generally
southerly to southwesterly but remaining below 10 knots through
the weekend.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 PM EDT this evening through
late Monday night for OHZ003-007.
Beach Hazards Statement from 8 PM EDT this evening through
Tuesday afternoon for OHZ009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 PM EDT this evening through
Tuesday afternoon for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
Tuesday for LEZ142-143.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
Tuesday for LEZ144>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...Iverson
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 18, 3:40 PM EDT---------------
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