BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 16, 12:10 PM EDT386
FXUS61 KBOX 161610
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1210 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather returns today, and will continue Saturday for all
but far western portions of southern New England. A slow-moving
front will lead to unsettled weather Sunday through Tuesday. A
drying trend with seasonable temperatures are expected for the
middle of next week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Ernesto will track
well southeast of New England, but it will bring rough surf and
strong rip currents to south-facing ocean beaches this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12 noon update...
going forecast in pretty good shape. Made a few minor tweaks to
the cloud cover forecast as the stratus has been slow to clear.
That's a sign that we are getting past peak solar insolation
strength as we move closer to fall. Also, will be putting out a
Rip Current Statement for expected moderate to high risk of Rip
Currents across south facing beaches and the east side of Outer
Cape for the weekend. The long period swells from Ernesto should
be reaching the coastline this evening and should last into
Sunday.
Previous discussion...
Trending drier today, but not completely out of the woods just
yet. Mid level ridging has not quite moved overhead to provide
complete subsidence. Various model sounding showed much less
instability today, generally less than 1,000 J/kg. However,
despite having at least some instability, there were at least a
couple of marginally stable layers to be overcome. At this time,
favoring a dry forecast overall. The most likely areas for
developing a few showers today would be across the higher
terrain towards the Berkshires, as well as in the central
Worcester Hills.
Patchy fog this morning, but dense fog is not widespread enough
to warrant a Dense Fog Advisory. Will monitor this possibility
early this morning.
Near normal high temperatures expected, and perhaps slightly
below normal toward the east coast of MA due to onshore winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
High pressure at the surface as well as mid level ridging is
more in place across our region tonight into Saturday. Dry
weather with near normal temperatures continues. A risk of some
showers moving into western MA late Saturday, but this timing
may change.
The other concern will be the arrival of long-period S to SE
swells from distant Hurricane Ernesto. Current thinking is we
will possibly need some sort of headline for beaches for a time
this weekend due to rough surf and an elevated risk for rip
currents. Those heading to the beaches this weekend should heed
the advice of local lifeguards and beach patrols.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Highlights
* Seasonable day on Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds and rain
chances increasing across the western areas by mid to late
afternoon
* Slow moving cold front pushes through the region Sunday night
into Monday bringing widespread showers with embedded thunder
to southern New England
* Trending cooler and drier mid to late next week
Sunday
A surface ridge associated with high pressure centered over Nova
Scotia is likely to prevent a slow moving cold front approaching
from the west from reaching southern New England on Sunday. As a
result, most of the region should stay dry on Sunday, especially
the eastern areas, but as the aforementioned front slowly
progresses eastward there will be increasing rain chances across
western MA and CT by late Sunday afternoon. Model guidance has
trended toward a later arrival of this front compared to model
runs earlier this week, so if that trend continues, most of
southern New England should stay dry on Sunday with seasonable
temperatures and a mix of sun and clouds.
Sunday night and Monday
Slow moving frontal boundary finally reaches southern New
England sometime between Sunday night and Monday. With
anomalously high moisture to the tune of 1.5" PWATs in place
over the region, expect periods of widespread showers with
embedded thunder on Monday. Only modest amounts of instability
and shear are expected during the frontal passage, so the risk
for severe thunderstorm development appears low at this time.
Timing of the frontal passage and associated showers/storms is
uncertain at this time range, but confidence is high that it
will occur sometime Monday.
Tuesday through Thursday
Once the aforementioned cold front pushes through the region, a
cooler/drier air mass will settle over The Northeast by the
middle of next week. 925 hPa temps behind the front fall to
around 15 Celsius which would translate to surface temps in the
low to mid 70s during the afternoon. Thus, it will be feeling
more like early fall next week. PWATs fall to values well below
an inch, so expect a good amount of sunshine behind the front
with low chances for rain through next Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in timing.
Mixed bag of conditions across southern New England this
morning. Widespread IFR across the eastern 2/3rds of southern
New England this morning, gradually lifting to VFR later this
morning. VFR already farther west. Light surface winds, so sea
breezes will develop by late morning.
VFR continues tonight into Saturday, with potential for local
MVFR/IFR in patchy fog and stratus tonight.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in
timing.
KBDL TAF...High Confidence.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
isolated TSRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. SHRA likely,
isolated TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Light winds through tonight, with nearshore seabreezes from mid
morning into this evening. Only aspect of the forecast that
mariners need to be aware of is the expected increase in swells
starting tonight and lasting into Monday. These swells and
associated increased wave heights will be from Hurricane
Ernesto. The swells will also be of very long period (13 to 16
seconds), so this will also result in strong rip currents and
high surf developing along south-facing coast lines. This may
also result in rough conditions at the entrances to inlets and
harbors.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local
rough seas.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of
rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MAZ002>004-
008>012.
High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 PM EDT this evening through
Sunday evening for MAZ022>024.
RI...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 PM EDT this evening through
Sunday evening for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
ANZ254-255.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/RM
NEAR TERM...Belk/Nash
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...Belk/RM
MARINE...Belk/RM
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 16, 12:10 PM EDT----------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
