CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 13, 9:18 AM EDT012
FXUS61 KCLE 131318
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
918 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure will drop across the region today
before high pressure strengthens tonight and remains in control
through Thursday. Low pressure will slowly move into the Great
Lakes Thursday night and Friday then meander across the region
through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
9:30 AM Update...
Minor adjustments were made to the morning temperatures to
reflect slightly cooler temperatures being observed, but aside
from that no additional changes were needed with this update.
6:30 AM Update...
The forecast remains on track this morning with no changes
needed. Light showers are exiting the US 30 corridor setting up
a dry morning until the next shortwave brings renewed shower
chances this afternoon.
Original Discussion...
Broad mid/upper troughing will remain across the Great Lakes
and Northeast CONUS through Wednesday keeping seasonable
temperatures and comfortably low humidity values in place. The
trough will be reinforced by a weak mid-level shortwave today
which will bring a few isolated light showers, but most areas
will stay dry.
Radar loops early this morning show a few showers traversing the
central highlands and US 30 corridor tied to an initial weak
shortwave and mid-level vort max. This activity will exit to the SE
by 10Z as the mid/upper support departs. This will leave a
completely dry start to the day before the next aforementioned
shortwave approaches by midday. This feature and associated mid-
level vort max is progged to drop into the vicinity of Lake Erie by
about 16Z before progressing toward Pittsburgh through the
afternoon. Weak synoptic scale lift from the vort max and an 80-90
knot H3 jet streak will squeeze out another round of isolated
showers in the roughly 16-22Z period, but limited mid-level moisture
is a big limiting factor, so kept PoPs at slight chance this
afternoon with most areas likely to stay dry. Subsidence and surface
high pressure strengthening across the central and southern Great
Lakes tonight through Wednesday will lead to dry conditions.
Highs today will range from the mid/upper 70s in NE Ohio and NW PA
to the low 80s in north central and NW Ohio. Slight warming is
expected Wednesday as the mid/upper trough axis shifts a bit farther
east with upper 70s/low 80s in NE Ohio and NW PA and low/mid 80s in
north central and NW Ohio. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s
in interior portions of NW PA and NE Ohio and along the US 30
corridor to the upper 50s/low 60s near the lakeshore.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather will persist into Thursday afternoon before shower and
thunderstorm chances increase from the west in response to
isentropic ascent ahead of an approaching warm front Thursday
evening. A vertically-stacked low will take shape and strengthen
over the western Great Lakes by Friday morning and widespread
showers/thunderstorms are likely as the aforementioned warm front
lifts into the area during the day Friday and the low's cold front
pushes east across the Midwest. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue into NW PA and far NE OH Friday night. Depending on the
speed and track of the system, the CWA could be located in the warm
sector during peak diurnal heating Friday which could result in
sufficient moisture, buoyancy, and shear for organized convection
and potential for strong thunderstorms. Still quite a bit of
uncertainty in the timing and placement of the warm front in
addition to placement and timing of the best lift/shear, but will
need to keep an eye on the potential for severe weather. As of now,
the main concern is flooding; precipitable water values may approach
2 inches in the warm sector and relatively weak steering flow could
lead to potential for slow-moving showers/thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall rates. Many locations across the area have received heavy
rainfall in the last week so wouldn't take much for flooding to
develop in those areas. WPC has placed the area in a Marginal Risk
for excessive rainfall for Friday.
High temperatures will be close to normal values Thursday and
Friday, but it will be quite muggy on Friday as dew points climb
into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows gradually warm from
the upper 50s to lower 60s Wednesday night to the mid to upper 60s
by Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Vertically-stacked low will slow to the north of Lake Erie and
meander east through the long term period. At some point, the
surface low will weaken with an upper trough lingering over the
region. As a result, several troughs/shortwaves will pivot across
the local area Saturday through Monday with periodic showers and
thunderstorms likely. Precipitation coverage and PoPs will be
highest with the cold front passage Saturday, but lake-enhanced
showers and thunderstorms remain likely Sunday and Monday, best
chance during peak diurnal instability.
Temperatures cool to slightly below-normal values over the weekend
thanks to cyclonic flow; highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s and
lows will be in the lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR will prevail through the TAF cycle. Isolated showers are
possible anywhere this afternoon as a weak mid-level shortwave
drops across the region, but coverage is expected to be too low
to include a VCSH in the TAFs. Best chance is at KMFD, KCAK, and
KYNG.
Light and variable winds early this morning will become N to NE
at 5-10 knots this afternoon, especially at KCLE and KERI where
a lake breeze is expected.
Outlook...Periods of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms
with non-VFR are possible Thursday afternoon through Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally expect variable winds under 10 knots and calm conditions
on lake Erie through Wednesday, but there will likely be a period of
onshore flow with a lake breeze during each afternoon. Winds shift
to the southeast and increase to 10 to 15 knots ahead of an
approaching warm front Thursday evening before becoming southerly
and increasing to 15 to 20 knots behind the front Friday. A few
guidance members are hinting at slightly stronger winds with deep
warm air advection Friday and as winds shift to the southwest Friday
night, so can't completely rule out marine headlines during this
time. Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots will continue through Saturday
as low pressure meanders east to the north of Lake Erie.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Maines
LONG TERM...Maines
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Maines
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 13, 9:18 AM EDT---------------
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