JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 12, 11:57 AM EDT230
FXUS63 KJKL 121557 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1157 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures and dry weather will persist through
mid week.
- Humidity and the possibility of showers and thunderstorms will
climb late in the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1157 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2024
The forecast remains on track. Dry weather will continue to reign
with some mid and high level cloudiness streaming in overhead from
time to time. This will keep temperatures in check, with readings
generally topping out in the low 80s. Updates have been sent.
UPDATE Issued at 720 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2024
Grids have been updated and initialized using the latest hourly
observations, but with no significant changes to the forecast for
this morning and afternoon no updates to the ZFP and SAF products
will be sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2024
The short-term period will be mostly uneventful with mostly dry
weather and gradually rising temperatures to near normal (for highs)
Tuesday.
High pressure remains at the surface through the short-term, but
a mid-level disturbance within an active northwesterly jet stream
will bring an increase in clouds this evening into the overnight.
Despite a relatively stable low-level environment and minimal low-
level moisture advection in the lower levels tonight as the
disturbance crosses the area, models depict a moist mid-level
environment that will likely produce a few showers or light rain
aloft, especially north of the Mountain Parkway. Some of the
heavier or more persistent activity may be able to produce a few
sprinkles or drops of rain at the surface, but measurable rain
chances are for now capped below the 15 PoP threshold to warrant
mention in the official forecasts late tonight into early Tuesday
morning. Drier air filters in behind the disturbance by Tuesday
afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2024
The forecast period starts on the down slope side of a shortwave
trough moving through the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high
pressure will continue to remain in place keeping the area dry.
However, a surface feature is forecast to develop off the Rockies
and eject northeast into the Great Lakes Thursday. The associated
warm front is forecast to lift into the Commonwealth late Thursday
into Friday. This will bring increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms to area for the end of the week. The system is then
expected to continue to move through the Great Lakes through the
weekend before a cold front crosses through the CWA on Sunday.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will persist through much of the
weekend before gradually coming to an end late Sunday into Monday.
Looking at forecast soundings, severe indices are on the marginal
side as persistent cloud cover and shower activity will prevent
building suitable instability. Also, lapse rates are unimpressive
but low-level shear is the more favorable parameter for severe
weather. Nonetheless, while the ingredients for severe weather are
marginal, can't rule out a severe storm or two on Friday
afternoon/evening. Lastly, forecast PWs are climatologically above
normal and with the potential for heavy rain, the WPC opted to place
the entire CWA in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Friday.
Overall, the period starts dry but will quickly transition to a
rainy weekend as a surface low moves through the Great Lakes.
Nonetheless, temperatures will remain seasonal as forecast highs are
to be in the mid to upper-80s with overnight lows in the low to mid-
60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the period outside of morning
river valley fog this morning and late tonight. However, fog is
not expected to impact any of the TAF sites. Clouds will increase
tonight, mainly at the mid-levels and higher, as a disturbance
moves across the region, with little in the way of rain expected.
Winds will average 5 kts or less, and generally be from a north to
northeast direction.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 12, 11:57 AM EDT---------------
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