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520 FXUS64 KMOB 092101AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL401 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Saturday)Issued at 401 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024Weak westerly to northwesterly flow will continue in the upper levels through Saturday as we remain on the eastern periphery of a broad upper level ridge and an upper trough meanders over the Great Lakes region. The main surface feature in the near term will be a surface trough that is currently draped across portions of the Florida Panhandle and far south central Alabama. Drier air has filtered in behind this feature with surface dew points currently in the lower 70s over parts of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Better deep layer moisture is in place along and south of the surface boundary (mainly over south central Alabama and the Florida Panhandle) where dew points are in the middle and upper 70s. While the radar has remained mostly dry through early this afternoon, we are still expecting isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop in areas along and southeast of I-65 later this afternoon and into early this evening. Any activity that develops should then taper off overnight. Temperatures this afternoon have climbed into the lower and middle 90s across the area. The drier air behind the front has kept heat index values below advisory thresholds over most interior areas. Further south, a Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7pm today for our coastal counties as well as far eastern portions of south central Alabama where surface observations have been reporting heat index values between 105-110 degrees.The pattern will remain unchanged as we head into the weekend. The surface boundary will continue to linger over south central Alabama with another round of isolated to scattered showers and storms developing along and southeast of the boundary Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will still be hot with highs reaching into the lower and middle 90s. We may need another Heat Advisory for the immediate coastal areas tomorrow, but have opted to hold off for now as conditions look to be very borderline. A low risk of rip currents is expected through the weekend. /14&&SHORT and LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)Issued at 449 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024The front/trough that had been just offshore will lift back northward into the forecast area Sunday and Sunday night beforeremaining nearly stationary while gradually dissipating throughmost of next week. Mostly dry conditions will generally prevailthrough the extended term however, with only isolated to locally scattered shower and thunderstorm potential each afternoon, especiallyover the southern half of the forecast area, in the vicinity of the sea-breeze boundary. Broad upper troughing prevails across the eastern CONUS, with weak upper ridging remaining over the Gulfcoast states. This upper ridging gradually strengthens into themiddle to late part of next week, and likewise we will see temperatures once again heating up. Overall, temperatures remain hot in the middle to upper 90's Sunday, becoming predominately upper 90's to near 100 by Monday through Friday. Overnight lowsremain warm as well, going from upper 60's inland and mid/upper70s coastal this weekend to mid 70's inland and lower 80s coastalby next week. As temperatures heat up into early next week Heat Ddvisories will likely once again be needed, particularly Tuesday through Friday time frame. Heat index values on these days will likely be in the 105 to 110 range, with locally higher up to 112 or even a little higher near the coast. A Low risk of rip currentsremains through the extended period. DS/12 &&.MARINE...Issued at 401 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024No significant marine impacts expected aside from increased windsand seas near isolated to scattered storms that develop each day.A light to moderate diurnal flow pattern will continue through the weekend and into the early part of next week. /14&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 76 97 75 97 75 98 77 98 / 10 10 10 10 10 20 10 30 Pensacola 78 96 78 96 78 96 79 97 / 20 30 20 30 10 30 10 30 Destin 80 94 80 94 80 94 81 94 / 20 40 20 30 20 30 20 30 Evergreen 74 96 72 97 71 98 74 99 / 10 10 0 10 0 10 0 20 Waynesboro 72 95 70 96 70 98 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 10 Camden 72 92 70 93 70 95 72 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 10 Crestview 75 97 75 97 73 98 75 98 / 30 40 10 30 10 30 10 30 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ058>060-261>266.FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
