JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 11, 7:41 PM EDT763
FXUS63 KJKL 112341 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
741 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures and dry weather will persist through
mid week.
- Humidity and the possibility of showers and thunderstorms will
climb late in the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 736 PM EDT SUN AUG 11 2024
Surface high pressure will dominate tonight and lead to another
night with low temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees below normal for
this point in August.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 426 PM EDT SUN AUG 11 2024
An upper level low over southern Quebec will weaken and lift out
to the northeast during the short term period. However, general,
broad troughing will linger over much of the eastern CONUS, with
west northwest flow aloft over our area. At the surface, a
persistent high and/or ridging will be just to our north and
northwest. This will continue to supply us with a relatively cool
and dry air mass by summertime standards. The dying remnants of
MCS activity originating over the plains and Midwest will try to
move toward us in the west northwest flow aloft on Monday night,
but with our dry low levels all we can expect is some mid-upper
level clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 522 PM EDT SUN AUG 11 2024
The long-term forecast period begins Tuesday morning with a mean
500H trough over the Northeast CONUS/far eastern Canada while a
ridge axis lingers over the Plains states, Manitoba and southern
Nunavut. Another trough is found upstream over the Pacific
Northwest/British Columbia/Alberta. At the surface, high pressure
is in place over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley. The
models are converging on a general pattern for Wednesday onward,
with the scenario advertised by the previous 12z ECWMF/Canadian
generally being favored.
Surface high pressure will dominate our weather through Wednesday as
it slowly congeals over the Great Lakes on Wednesday before shifting
east in the Mid-Atlantic/New England on Thursday and Friday.
Meanwhile aloft, the 500H ridge axis over the Central CONUS
slowly builds eastward through early Thursday as the Pacific
Northwest trough rides into and over the ridge on Thursday before
dropping southeast and digging into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes
on Friday into next weekend. By the end of the forecast period on
Sunday, there is a strong signal for a amplified West Coast
trough/Plains ridge/East Coast trough pattern to have re-emerged
over the nation. There are still timing differences in model
suite, however, guidance generally now shows cyclogenesis east of
the Central Rockies (ahead of the trough initially over the
Pacific Northwest) mid-week with the subsequent surface low
tracking toward the Western Great Lakes. The low's warm conveyor
belt jet will help pull a warm front northeastward through
eastern Kentucky later Thursday and Friday. The GFS suggests that
the low takes a southward turn thereafter and drops into the Ohio
Valley but this is not supported by a majority of the guidance.
Rather, most of the guidance slows the low while it continues to
track into the eastern Great Lakes over the weekend. This would
favor the system's trailing cold front crossing eastern Kentucky
on either Saturday or Sunday.
In sensible terms, look for fair weather to continue through
Wednesday. High temperatures on Tuesday/Wednesday are forecast to
reach the lower to mid 80s/mid to upper 80s while nighttime lows
range from the mid 50s to mid 60s (sheltered northeastern hollows
to thermal belt ridgetops). Humidity levels begin to climb
notably on Thursday as the warm front approaches. With those
rising moisture levels comes a low rain chance (20-30 PoP) and
the possibility of isolated thunder. Thursday may be the hottest
day of the period with highs in the mid 80s to near 90. The best
chance for rainfall (60 to 70 PoP) follows on Friday with the
passage of the warm front. The cold front then passes over the
weekend with additional rain chances. Forecast high temperatures
are currently in the mid 80s on Friday and Saturday but will
likely need future adjustment, depending upon cloud cover and the
timing of the fronts. Once the front passes, expect seasonably
cool weather to return early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT SUN AUG 11 2024
High pressure will lead to VFR conditions through the period, with
one exception. This would be valley fog along the larger creeks
and rivers between 04Z and 13Z. Although the TAF sites will not be
affected, localized IFR or worse is expected with this fog. Winds
will average 5KT or less.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 11, 7:41 PM EDT---------------
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