MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 8, 6:09 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...885
FXUS64 KMOB 082309
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
609 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024
VFR conditions are expected through Friday. Winds become light and
variable this evening, then a northerly flow around 5 knots
prevails on Friday, except for becoming southwesterly 5 to 10
knots near the coast in the afternoon. /29
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 407 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024
A northwesterly to northerly flow pattern aloft will persist across
our area through Friday as the local forecast area remains
positioned between a deepening upper troughing to our east (which
will finally lift remnants of Tropical Storm Debby up the east
coast) and upper level ridging centered over Texas that will be
gradually building more into the Lower Mississippi Valley region. A
weak surface front/trough that pushed into the southeast CONUS today
will push a little further south into our area on Friday as remnants
of Debby lift up the east coast, but stalls over our area or just
offshore on Friday. This too will help maintain a dry, mostly
northwesterly low level flow over the area as well. Overall, PWATS
generally remain in the 1.75 inch range across the region. With the
surface boundary and associated moisture, there could be an isolated
shower or storm along/south of the boundary on Friday, but PoPs only
20 percent or less.
High temperatures on Friday will mainly be in the mid to upper 90s,
except for some lower 90s along the immediate coast. Heat index
readings look to range up to around 110 degrees southern (and
especially coastal) portions of the forecast area on Friday, so
another Heat Advisory issuance will be necessary over these areas.
Lows tonight are expected to be warm and muggy once again, mainly in
the middle 70s for most of the area, but upper 70s and lower 80s
closer to and along the coast. DS/12
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 407 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024
A broad upper level trough will move across the northeastern US
through early next week while upper level ridging remains in
place over the local area. Down in the lower levels, a subtle
surface trough will be positioned across the coastal areas or just
offshore through the weekend before dissipating by early next
week. Much drier air will be in place behind this surface boundary
and therefore most areas will remain dry through the weekend. The
better chance for an isolated or perhaps scattered shower or
storm will be along the coast or over southern portions of south
central Alabama. Temperatures will be hot on Saturday and Sunday
with high temperatures rising into the middle and upper 90s. Lower
dew points behind the aforementioned surface boundary will help
to keep interior areas below Heat Advisory criteria through the
weekend, but it is possible that we may need an advisory for areas
along the coast on Saturday. Ridging aloft will strengthen as we
head into next week which will help to increase temperatures.
Highs each afternoon next week will rise into the upper 90s to
around 100 degrees with heat index values climbing back into the
105-110 degree range. We'll likely need additional Heat Advisories
across much of the area by the middle of next week. There may be
some relief in the form of daily chances for showers and storms,
but coverage is expected to remain around 20-35% at best. /14
MARINE...
Issued at 407 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024
Light to moderate diurnal flow pattern will continue from Friday,
through the weekend and into the early part of next week.
Offshore flow during the overnight and morning hours, followed by
an onshore flow during the afternoon hours. No hazards to small
craft expected. DS/12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 75 97 76 97 75 97 75 97 / 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 20
Pensacola 77 95 79 96 77 96 78 96 / 0 20 20 30 10 20 10 20
Destin 79 93 81 94 79 95 81 94 / 10 20 20 30 20 30 10 30
Evergreen 74 96 73 96 70 96 71 98 / 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10
Waynesboro 74 96 72 96 69 95 70 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Camden 75 96 73 93 69 92 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Crestview 74 97 75 97 74 98 73 98 / 0 20 10 30 10 20 10 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for ALZ059-060-
261>266.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ060-263>266.
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for FLZ201>206.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 8, 6:09 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
