PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 10, 3:13 AM EDT586
FXUS61 KPBZ 100713
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
313 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures can be
expected through the weekend and into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry conditions with slight below normal high temperatures.
_____________________________________________________________
Weak cold advection will support overnight lows bottoming out
right around or slightly below normal this morning. Patchy river
valley fog evident in latest GOES nighttime microphysics
imagery will diminish by mid-morning. Broad sfc ridging sliding
up the the Ohio river valley will result in dry conditions
today, with highs topping out slightly below normal as an upper
trough moves over SE Canada.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and relatively cool temperatures continue through the
weekend.
__________________________________________________________
Mostly dry weather will continue with the mentioned high
pressure largely in control. The exception will be areas north
of I-80, where weak shortwaves propagating through the upper
trough could result in a few light showers on Sunday.
Temperatures will run a couple degrees below average underneath
the troughing pattern.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mostly dry weather continues at least into the middle of next
week.
- Below-normal temperatures over the weekend moderate towards
climatology later in the week.
_____________________________________________________________
The troughing pattern will become more shallow early next week
as the upper low fills and swings toward the Canadian Maritimes
by Tuesday. Broad surface high pressure will remain in place as
well. The result will be the continuation of the overall dry
trend. Once again, a shower or two cannot be ruled out north of
Pittsburgh as ripples of vorticity move through the trough.
Temperatures will remain slightly below normal.
Thereafter, the trough axis will eventually take up residence
towards the Atlantic coast, putting our region in more of a
northwest flow situation aloft. High pressure remains at the
surface at least into Thursday, but rain chances may finally
start to reappear towards the end of the week as moisture tries
to increase from the southwest. Temperatures will trend up to
near normal values.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR vis restrictions remain highest at DUJ/LBE/MGW through dawn
given recent rain, but surface winds are expected to suppress
widespread coverage. Probabilities of MVFR vis at LBE and MGW
are only 20%, while chances are as high as 40% at DUJ. Due to
low probability, maintained vsby restriction mention only at
DUJ where probabilities are highest.
High confidence in VFR prevails today and early tonight. Some
elevated moisture may be enough to maintain an elevated cu deck
which will dissolve at sunset with a loss of mixing. Daytime
gusts are roughly 60% likely to be in excess of 15kts north of
I-70.
.Outlook...
General VFR is expected through the weekend as surface high
pressure builds under broad upper troughing.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...CL/88
AVIATION...Milcarek
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 10, 3:13 AM EDT---------------
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