ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 9, 2:51 PM EDT361
FXUS61 KILN 091851
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
251 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure returns for the weekend into early next week
providing cooler and drier conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Northwest flow and widespread fair weather cumulus in store for
the rest of the afternoon and early evening as the leading edge
of a major air mass change moves into the Ohio Valley. The slow
moving longwave trough over the Great Lakes contains a 100-110
knot jet streak, with the Midwest and lower Ohio Valley firmly
within the right exit region (downward motion) supporting the
anomalously high surface pressure. The high pressure continues
to push into the region middle Ohio River Valley tonight, with
much cooler than normal temperatures forecast. Temperatures will
likely be in the 50s across the entire area by Saturday
morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Below normal temperatures remain the key theme for this period
as high pressure is dominant over much of the Midwest and Ohio
Valley. Light northwesterly winds will continue with fair
weather cumulus again in the afternoon, especially north of
I-70. There will be a few patches of cirrus as well throughout
the day. Temperatures are coolest across the northwest where
some locations are expected to remain in the lower 70s. There
will still be some locations in the lower 80s, stretching from
the Scioto and Ohio River Valleys.
Temperatures a slightly cooler than the previous night as the
high pressure becomes more centered over the Ohio Valley,
reducing winds by a few more mph. The entire area is once again
in the 50s, but can't rule out a couple cooler spots reaching
the upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low amplitude long wave pattern will remain in place across
much of the country through the period. As a closed low over
southeast Canada into the Great Lakes pivots eastwards early in
the week, the long wave will shift slightly eastward putting the
forecast area in broad west northwest flow. Some short wave
energy will track along this path, most notably on Monday and
Thursday.
Surface high pressure will be persistent into mid week. There
has been some discrepancy on the strength of Monday's short wave
and whether that will be sufficient to generate enough mid
level activity to overcome dry low levels. Enough of a
possibility that it warrants a slight chance of measurable
precipitation Monday afternoon and evening.
As is often the case, uncertainty increases further out in time
with the Thursday system, but current indications are that the
chance of precipitation might be even a bit higher, especially
across southern counties.
Below normal temperatures to start the period will warm to near
average from midweek onwards.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cumulus growth increased over the last couple of hours, briefly
producing MVFR CIGs at DAY. Since it's the afternoon, this
cloud cover should remain at VFR coverage/heights and will
dissipate later this evening.
Northwest increase are around 10 knots through the afternoon.
Can't rule out a few gusts, but the potential is lower so
removed from prevailing groups. These northwest winds decrease
to less than 10 kts tonight through the rest of the period.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...McGinnis
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 9, 2:51 PM EDT---------------
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