PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 9, 2:29 PM EDT901
FXUS61 KPBZ 091829
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
229 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Remaining showers will end by sunset as drier air follows a cold
front. Cooler and dry weather follows for the weekend as surface
high pressure takes control.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Lingering showers will end by sunset, as will 20 to 30 MPH
wind gusts.
- Clearing sky overnight as drier air moves in. Patchy fog
possible east of Pittsburgh.
_____________________________________________________________
The center of what once was Debby is now lifting into central
New York State. Mostly light rain showers are all that remain to
the east of Pittsburgh as drier air pushes in from the west
behind an advancing front. Behind this front, the drying process
continues, with precipitable water values dropping below 0.8
inch for much of the region overnight per the HREF. Showers will
end by sunset, and a clearing sky is also anticipated.
Wind gusts of 20 to 30 MPH will continue through the afternoon
near and behind the front with good low-level mixing. These
winds should relax by sunset as well as the boundary layer
stabilizes. Wind should relax enough overnight to allow for some
patchy fog formation, particularly in the areas east of
Pittsburgh that received the bulk of the rain. Overnight lows in
the mid 50s to lower 60s will be accompanied by decreasing
dewpoints.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Drier and relatively cooler weather this weekend.
__________________________________________________________
As upper level low pressure slowly spins from Ontario into
Quebec this weekend, the associated upper trough will settle
across the northeast CONUS. At the surface, broad ridging will
ride up the Ohio Valley as a high center drops toward the
Ohio/Mississippi River confluence. This will keep mostly dry
weather in the forecast through the period. The lone exception
will be areas north of I-80, where weak waves rotating through
the trough may generate some light rain showers, mainly on
Sunday. Temperatures will run around 5 degrees below average
underneath the troughing pattern.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mostly dry weather continues at least into the middle of next
week.
- Below-normal temperatures over the weekend moderate towards
climatology next week.
_____________________________________________________________
The troughing pattern will become more shallow early next week
as the upper low fills and swings toward the Canadian Maritimes
by Tuesday. Broad surface high pressure will remain in place as
well. The result will be the continuation of the overall dry
trend. Once again, a shower or two cannot be ruled out north of
Pittsburgh as ripples of vorticity move through the trough.
Temperatures will remain slightly below normal.
Thereafter, the trough axis will eventually take up residence
towards the Atlantic coast, putting our region in more of a
northwest flow situation aloft. High pressure remains at the
surface at least into Thursday, but rain chances may finally
start to reappear towards the end of the week as moisture tries
to increase from the southwest. Temperatures should moderate
slightly towards climatology.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Scattering and lifting of CIGs is expected with high confidence
by this afternoon as Debby draws northeast and drier air noted
on water vapor imagery advects in from the west. VFR cu
development noted in upstream obs is expected to take over from
west to east by 19z for PIT and surrounding terminals but MVFR
is favored a bit longer for MGW/LBE/DUJ until around 21z. Some
gusts to 15-20 knots are possible into late afternoon with a
elevated pressure gradient and pocket of enhanced 850 mb flow.
Winds will back from northeast to northwest through the forecast
period.
Skies will remain mostly clear overnight. Some fog formation is
possible with lingering low level moisture in the areas that saw
the most rain in the past 24 hours. LBE/DUJ/MGW may see some
VIS restrictions 07z, but confidence and hi res ensemble
probabilities remain on the lower side with elevated wind
overnight, so did not include mention in the TAFs at this time.
High confidence VFR with developing diurnal cu again on
Saturday. Daytime mixing will promote a 5-10 knot westerly wind
with gusts to 15 knots.
.Outlook...
General VFR is expected through the weekend as surface high
pressure builds under broad upper troughing.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CL
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...MLB
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 9, 2:29 PM EDT---------------
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