PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 13, 1:37 PM EDT795
FXUS61 KPBZ 131737
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston WV
137 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Above average temperatures can be expected today under high
pressure. Shower chances increase Tuesday morning, thunderstorm
chances increase late Tuesday evening.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
-Dry conditions and ample sunshine today with above normal
temperatures.
______________________________________________________________
9am Update: No major changes to this forecast period. River
valley fog is burning off with diurnal heating early this
morning. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions are expected with
deep mixing of drier air. Under warm advection from the
southwest, temperatures are expected to range from the upper-70s
to low-80s for a large portion of the day.
Previous Discussion:
Increasing subsidence as an upper ridge moves across the region
will keep cloud coverage minimal. Southerly flow and deep mixing
will yield daytime max temperatures around 10 degrees above
normal on average, with gusts up to 20mph during the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Elevated shower/thunderstorm chances return Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Minimal severe threat.
______________________________________________________________
An upper trough is progged to slide east through the period out
of the midwest...east of the forecast area by Wednesday
evening. Increased moisture and ascent ahead of the trough along
with a crossing shortwave will return showers and thunderstorms
to the region by Tuesday afternoon. Shower/thunderstorm
chances will then continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as the
associated surface low transitions up the Ohio Valley, passing
south of the PA/WV border. Lingering showers will taper off in
the afternoon and evening with the upper low departing and high
pressure builds in from the west. Ensemble thunderstorm
probabilities range between 30-40% during the afternoon and
early evening, however, the severe threat is low with marginal
instability and shear.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry conditions resume Thursday
- Ensemble spread is high Friday and Saturday, but another
trough appears to bring shower chances Friday.
- Above normal temperatures continue.
______________________________________________________________
Upper ridging brings sunshine and temperatures in the 75-80F
range on Thursday. Another trough with potential for showers and
thunderstorms appears to be on tap for Friday and Saturday,
though considerable standard deviation is noted in ensemble
guidance during that period over the Great Lakes and upper
Midwest.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through late tonight/early Tuesday
morning. Clouds progressively build into the region from the south
late this afternoon into the overnight as transient ridging
exits to the east with resultant increasing southwesterly flow.
Expect virga by early Tuesday with showers beginning to reach
the ground toward daybreak. As the column progressively
moistens, expect widespread MVFR ceilings to develop heading
into late Tuesday morning. Some heavier rainshowers may briefly
reduce visibility under 6SM.
Winds generally under 10KTs and south-southwesterly.
.Outlook...
Restrictions are likely, along with showers and possible
thunderstorms, Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday as slow moving
low pressure crosses the region. Restrictions are possible
Thursday with scattered showers as the low exits. VFR returns
Restrictions are possible again Friday with an approaching cold
front.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan/88
NEAR TERM...Hefferan/88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...JP
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 13, 1:37 PM EDT---------------
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