ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 4:01 PM EDT992
FXUS61 KILN 072001
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
401 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Slightly cooler air has moved into the area, with high pressure
centered over southeastern Canada, and Tropical Storm Debby near
the southeast coast. Another cold front will move into the area
Friday, providing additional cooling and drying for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Cloud cover lingers this afternoon and evening as the region
remains trapped in a broad area of low pressure. Still can't
rule out a few showers across the Scioto Valley and northern
Kentucky where instability remains. Across the north and west,
northeasterly winds have held temperatures in the upper 70s and
lower 80s.
Light northeasterly flow continues overnight with a fairly
stagnant surface pressure pattern and steady zonal flow aloft.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Inverted trough embedded within the broad surface low pressure
sharpens during the day, aiding the potential for a band of
showers and a few thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon.
At this time, confidence is highest along and east of the I-71
corridor, with movement quite slow if not stalled completely.
This activity will be aided by a weak shortwave trough digging
into the lower Great Lakes. High temperatures in the 80s to
lower 90s will be cooled by any convective development through
the afternoon.
Even as daytime heating decreases, activity will linger into
evening and overnight as height falls continue to occur. Low
temperatures are quite mild with significant air mass changes
coming in the short term period.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There will be some showers and thunderstorms around still on
Friday as the area remains on the edge of Debby. As Debby
remnants push off to the northeast, cooler and drier air will
move into the region. Several days of below normal temperatures
are expected. There is still some uncertainty on the return of
precipitation chances to the region, however there are
indications that there will be multiple chances of rain Monday
afternoon through Wednesday. There is still quite a bit of model
uncertainty and therefore limited precipitation chances to the
chance category.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered MVFR CIGs as mostly clear skies begin to fill with
cumulus that is developing around 2500-3500 feet. These
conditions will gradually improve to VFR heights within an hour
or so of TAF issuance. Otherwise, prevailing VFR restrictions
forecast.
Winds remain out of the northeast between 5 and 10 knots through
the entire forecast period.
Can't rule out a few scattered showers/isolated thunder
tomorrow, but with limited confidence in location, left out
mentions for now.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...McGinnis
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 4:01 PM EDT---------------
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