IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 2:02 AM EDT740
FXUS63 KIWX 020602
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
202 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Decreasing risk of severe thunderstorms for the remainder of
today.
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on Friday.
- Primarily dry this weekend before shower and storms return
starting Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024
Mostly cloudy to overcast skies from early-morning convection over
eastern Illinois has so far squashed the day's severe weather risk.
I am beginning to think that will continue to be the case. Multiple
factors are complicating the near-term forecast including an overall
lack of shear, poor lapse rates, and overall cloudiness (details
below). Should storms overcome these obstacles, the primary window
opportunity continues to be 4pm to 10pm EDT with damaging wind gusts
as the primary hazard.
An area of clearing from Evansville northeast through Muncie yields
destablization in those areas. Thunderstorms over far southern
Illinois are currently growing upstream, somewhat consistent with
CAMs, yet it seems unlikely this cluster would continue to develop
cells so far north as to pose a risk to our local forecast area (as
advertised in some CAMs). This is because clouds and instability are
more problematic north of the ongoing convection. Furthermore, storm
motion more east than north leads me to believe ongoing convection
there will not grow upstream into our area.
Next, there is an MCV swirling over southern Lake Michigan per
satellite imagery. Abundant clouds and continued capping here will
also seemingly preclude any severe storms.
Lastly, the synoptic triple point is noted over far southwest
Wisconsin. There, instability is favorable for storms to develop and
perhaps drift east into Michiana toward or after sunset. Yet, a lack
of shear presents doubts with respect to maintenance. Such timing
for storms is less favorable for severe as well.
Turning to tomorrow, the upper-level low currently wrapped up over
eastern MN, is forecast to continue its southeast track bringing
scattered to numerous showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the
area. Severe weather is not expected due to 0-6km shear of 15 knots
or less. High temperatures will be near 80, notably cooler for those
in northwest Ohio who saw highs well into the 80s today before
clouds arrived. Drying out Saturday as the trough axis aloft pulls
away.
Sunday through midweek, a ridge is stationed over the Four Corners,
bleeding eastward into the Central and Southern Plains. As a result,
northwest flow prevails aloft which presents numerous opportunities
for POPs Monday through Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024
Widely scattered showers continue to percolate in association
with an upper low located in NW Illinois. KSBN may see a few
showers (can't rule out a brief lightning strike) through 12Z,
but for now keeping VCSH as recent activity has been generally
weakening. Narrow line of showers and storms was located from
near KRCR to KGUS, moving east. Lightning has been maintained
somewhat over the past couple of hours and with its present
movement eastward, a brief shower/storm may impact KFWA in the
8-9Z window, but models suggest an overall weakening trend prior
to arrival at the site. Will keep with just VCSH and monitor
trends for the next hour or so. If it does make it, duration
won't be much longer than 15 to 20 minutes, posing a challenge
to capture in the TAFs.
Otherwise, the upper low will drift east through the day with
coverage and to some degree intensity of the showers and storms
expected to increase as decent mid level lapse rates and
favorable diurnal timing occurs for both locations. Have
continued with VCSH and a prob30 for thunder this afternoon with
this issuance, but will likely better refine timing with 12Z
TAFs.
Last, but not least, will continue with tempo overnight for some
lower cigs/vsbys as stratus and fog may take shape similar to
past night.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Fisher
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 2:02 AM EDT---------------
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