MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 1, 11:50 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...337
FXUS64 KMOB 020450
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1150 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024
VFR flight category will prevail over the next 24 hours. The
exception being isolated to scattered storms from mid Friday
afternoon into the early evening hours temporarily reducing flight
category to MVFR/IFR. Winds prevail out of the west to southwest
through Friday at around 5 to 10 knots. /22
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024/
.New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024
Only small, subtle changes to the weather pattern in the near term
period. Hot and muggy conditions will continue as the area remains
of the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered across the
southern plains. But, a shortwave trough will be digging into that
ridging over the southeast CONUS on Friday, bringing a slight
relief to the heat over our interior AL zones. At the sfc, ridging
over our area tonight will weaken and get pushed a little to the
south and out over the Gulf on Friday. PWAT's remain around 2
inches along coastal sections of the forecast area through Friday,
but drop "down" to around 1.80 inches over the interior during
the day on Friday. With this, only isolated to scattered
convection is expected again on Friday, primarily over the
southern half of the forecast area where moisture values will be
slightly higher. A few lingering showers and storms early this
evening, but generally rain-free overnight tonight. Lows tonight
are expected to be in the mid 70s across most of the interior,
upper 70s to lower 80s closer to and along the coast. Highs on
Friday will again be in the mid to upper 90s across most of the
area, but lower 90s along the immediate coast. Due to the slightly
drier air and lower dewpoints moving into the area from the north
on Friday, heat indices should be just below Heat Advisory
criteria, mainly in the 100-105 degree range). Over our MS
counties and southern interior AL counties, as well as all of our
coastal counties, afternoon heat indices will again likely climb
into the 108-112 degree range on Friday, and we have issued yet
another Heat Advisory for those locations from 10 AM to 7 PM.
DS/12
LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024
The forecast this weekend is pretty typical for early August -
HOT temperatures with afternoon thunderstorms. We have no tropical
concerns locally through the weekend, so rest easy. The local area
generally remains sandwiched between a ridge to both our west and
east with a trough to our north - essentially leaving the
northern Gulf Coast in a weakness between all these features. Down
in the lower levels, the local area remains stuck between to
surface ridges as a subtle boundary (weakening front) attempts to
dive south. There remains uncertainty surrounding just how far the
boundary will get before it begins to stall. Some of the recent
guidance indicates that the boundary may stall or wash out before
it even makes it to the coastline. Rain chances will be highest
along the sea breeze and stalling boundary, generally east of
I-65, each afternoon over the weekend. Further west, there will
likely be just enough of an influence from the ridging that rain
chances will be more typical for this time of year. Despite the
boundary sliding into the region, temperatures will still be
toasty over the weekend with highs topping out in the mid to upper
90s.
That said, we know that all eyes are on the topics right now. Here
are our key messages:
1. It is too soon to say if this system will have any impacts for
the local area. Impacts are NOT expected locally this weekend.
2. It is still a rather low-confidence forecast given that the
system has not fully developed yet. We don't have a good feel for
which scenario is most likely yet, but we are leaning toward the
first scenario (listed below).
3. What you can do now - monitor the forecasts over the coming
days, review your family's hurricane plans, and update/refresh
your emergency supply kit.
Here are the potential scenarios that we are messaging:
Scenario #1: This system develops in the eastern Gulf of Mexico
this weekend and lifts over the Florida peninsula or Big Bend
region late in the weekend or early next week. This would
potentially increase our rip current risk (if enough swell is
generated), but impacts would be minimal here locally. The rest of
the week would feature typical summertime conditions - hot with
more afternoon thunderstorms.
Scenario #2: The system is slower to develop which allows it to
move further west into the Gulf of Mexico. In this scenario, weak
steering currents would result in the system moving moving very
slowly or stalling. This scenario means the system could
eventually be more impactful for parts of the area next week (all
tropical- related impacts would be on the table with this
scenario). Such a scenario could mean impacts (if they were to
occur) wouldn't happen here locally until later in the week. Note
that there is A LOT of uncertainty with this particular scenario.
We're barreling toward the peak of hurricane season, so you should
ensure you are prepared for tropical activity...regardless of what
happens in the coming days. Be proactive this hurricane season.
07/mb
MARINE...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024
A light onshore flow this afternoon will become light offshore
late tonight and early Friday before becoming more predominately
southwesterly to southerly over the weekend. By early next week
winds will likely increase somewhat and become more northeasterly,
gradually shifting to more northwesterly through midweek. Seas
will build as well next week, and likely become hazardous to small
craft the early to middle part of next week. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will continue over the marine area, especially
during the late night and early morning hours through the weekend
and into early next week. The only hazards will be increased winds
and seas near the scattered showers and storms. DS/12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 77 97 78 96 75 95 76 94 / 10 30 20 50 40 60 30 60
Pensacola 80 96 80 94 77 92 77 91 / 10 30 20 50 40 60 40 60
Destin 81 92 81 91 79 91 78 90 / 10 30 20 50 40 50 50 60
Evergreen 75 98 75 95 73 94 74 92 / 30 20 20 60 30 60 20 50
Waynesboro 75 99 75 97 73 97 74 96 / 10 10 20 40 20 40 10 40
Camden 76 97 75 94 73 94 74 92 / 10 20 20 50 30 40 10 40
Crestview 76 97 76 95 73 94 74 91 / 10 50 20 70 30 70 40 70
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for ALZ052-059-060-
261>266.
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for FLZ201>206.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 1, 11:50 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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