LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 26, 12:40 PM CDT ...NEW AVIATION...077
FXUS64 KLIX 261740 AAB
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1240 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
...NEW AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
We know this sounds like a broken record...and it is. Deep tropical
moisture will continue to stream north mainly into a weak trough
found from central Miss to SW LA and down the coastal bend of TX.
This is where the burst of sh/ts will initiate again today and
eventually move east into the area. There will be some weakening
storms along our coast that will make its way inland this morning as
well. This will keep precip chances high all day along coastal
locations but storms will take some time to develop/move into the
remaining area today as PW values remain high and north of 2.0"
today and Saturday. Most areas are saturated and it wouldn't take
much for any one location to have flooding issues. This activity is
more progressive as it moves through our area, so even though there
will be some heavy rainfall that could cause ponding in low lying
locations and some roadways, most of this shouldn't be an issue
unless there is an area that training or stalling can occur and this
just isn't seen at the moment. There remains the outside chance of
one of these becoming severe. The most likely probability would be
the production of water/land spouts.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
There is some evidence of this pattern breaking down. So far we have
been under the influence of westerlies and with such an environment,
storms move mainly north or NW in advance of the main area of sh/ts
while the main area moves east and NE. The upper trough allowing
this will be getting shoved eventually to the east which looks to
take place by Mon or Tue. How this occurs is quite interesting. What
is even more interesting is how deep this upper trough is. One can
easily see in WV imagery that this trough extends from the Hudson
Bay in Canada to the tip of the Baha Pen in Mexico. This is very
impressive for this time of year. The way the SW stacked high gets
nudged eastward, which in turn moves the trough out, is by the
southern most end of this trough cutting off into an upper low. This
occurs around late Sat or Sun. The upper low rapidly moves NW along
the coastline and as it moves along California, the SW high gets
shoved east a bit causing the upper trough to move east by Mon or
Tue. Our area then transfers to an easterly flow regime by that time
as the Bermuda High will ridge into the gulf bringing our sh/ts from
the east in the flow south of this high. This will definitely cut
down the precip chances, but won't zero them out. This should drop
the area back to the normal hit and miss 30-40% chance of rain.
There will be a transition day or two that things become stagnant as
flow regime changes from westerly to easterly and that day or days
should be either Mon or Tue or both. During this time frame, when
storms are not moving much, there would be a high chance of heavy
rainfall staying over one locations for longer periods even
though our rain chances are easing a bit.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Convection is ongoing across local terminals this afternoon and
will remain possible through sunset or so with a downward trend in
coverage expected over time. Covered the scattered coverage with
TEMPOs. Expect reduced VIS and ceilings in and around convection.
Otherwise, guidance do show MVFR (or lower) VIS/CIGs overnight and
early Saturday for most terminals. Didn't go as low as IFR for
now, but subsequent updates may require further reduced VIS/CIGs
if confidence grows. Otherwise, light and variable winds expected
outside of convection. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Outside any storms, which will be plentiful, winds and seas should
be on the low side as winds should remain 10kt or less. These basic
conditions should repeat through this week. Winds should become
light and variable by the start of the new week with lower chances
of storms around each day, but storms that do occur will still have
the ability to produce strong winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 71 87 72 89 / 50 90 20 80
BTR 75 91 76 92 / 40 90 20 80
ASD 74 90 76 92 / 50 90 20 80
MSY 77 89 78 90 / 50 90 20 80
GPT 76 89 77 90 / 50 80 20 80
PQL 75 92 76 93 / 50 80 30 70
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...TE
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 26, 12:40 PM CDT ...NEW AVIATION...---------------
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