LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 1, 7:24 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...861
FXUS63 KLMK 012324
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
724 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Thunderstorm chances continue Friday into Saturday. Torrential
rainfall could result in localized flash flooding, especially
where the ground is already saturated. Gusty winds also possible
in the stronger storms.
* Dry weather Sunday into early next week, but hot temperatures
will return, pushing the heat index near 100 at times.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 529 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024
Dropped the Heat Advisory for a handful of counties where
thunderstorms have dropped temperatures 20 degrees. Thanks to PAH
for coord.
Would like to hold on to the SVA a little longer and monitor trends
before dropping counties. Yesterday afternoon widespread storms
moved through the region, but SPS-level storms still managed to
redevelop behind the storms mid-evening. Today we still have a few
hours of sunshine left, and there has been some redevelopment,
albeit relatively weak, between EVV and PAH. While we will still
probably drop western counties from the SVA early, don't want to
jump the gun.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024
The same overall pattern remains with upper ridging over the western
US. Northwest flow continues to bring round after round of
convection through southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
We began the afternoon by issuing a Heat Advisory from a line from
Perry County, Indiana to Monroe County, Kentucky and to the
southwest for heat indices near 105 degrees. Based on observations,
we could have added Dubois County as well, but approaching showers
will cool them within the next hour.
For the rest of the day, eyes will be on convection that has just
entered southwest Indiana. While the storm developed over southern
Illinois, it exploded, producing lots of lightning and severe winds
over 50 knots, but now the overall strength of the storm has
weakened as outflow has jumped ahead of all but the southern part of
the line. As the system moves eastward along a MLCAPE gradient of 2-
3,000 J/kg, the system is expected to increase in size, and with
DCAPE values around 1,000 to 1,100 J/kg gusty winds will be the
primary concern along with lightning. Deep layer shear remains weak,
but with storm to storm and outflow interaction, localized areas of
enhancement will be possible.
Flash flooding is also of concern as we head through the afternoon
and evening hours. Precipitable water values are currently around 2"
around current convection with 1.8-1.9" values over the CWA. These
are close to the same values that have been over the CWA for the
last few days, and with warm temperatures in place, most areas have
been able to handle most of the rainfall as long as there are some
breaks in the heavy rainfall. There could be so isolated issues if
any heavy rainers sit stationary, but believe the expected
progressive nature of the convection will limit widespread flooding
issues.
Tonight and tomorrow, as a closed upper low rides in on the
northwest flow from the Midwest towards the Lower Ohio Valley,
isolated to scattered showers remain possible. During the overnight,
the added low level moisture could lead to patchy fogging and/or low
stratus while other areas see more clearing. Low temperatures
tonight are expected to drop into the low to mid 70s before mid to
upper 80s return tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024
Showers and storms should start winding down in coverage Friday
night with the loss of daytime heating and no appreciable
lifting/forcing mechanism in place. Isolated to scattered activity
could linger into the morning hours, and then increase in coverage
some during the afternoon Saturday, but drier, more stable air
working in behind an upper level trough should steadily end the rain
threat from west to east.
Dry weather should continue Sunday into early next week as warmer
850-700mb temps cap convective development. Temps will be on the
warmer side of climo due to the lack of more widespread clouds and
convective development (likely climbing into the low 90s), and
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will certainly make it feel
muggy. At this point, though, it appears we'll stay short of heat
advisory criteria, with most spots hitting 95-100 degree peak heat
indices through next week.
Rain chances may begin to creep up by midweek depending on how the
upper level flow evolves. Most models keep us on the southern
fringes of the more active flow aloft, which in theory would result
in most convective waves/MCSs passing just to our north. Current
forecast carries small PoP chances to account for these waves as
well as any potential diurnal pulse-convection that may develop on
mesoscale boundaries.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 723 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024
Earlier storms will have moved off to the east by the start of the
TAF period other than a few lingering rumbles of thunder at RGA and
possibly LEX/BWG. For the remainder of the night, skies should be
partly cloudy with light winds. Can't rule out widely scattered
thunderstorms overnight once again in the humid air mass, though low
confidence restricted TAF mention to PROB30. Could see some light BR
at HNB/RGA around dawn.
Another day of scattered storms is expected tomorrow, so went with
PROB30 for the afternoon hours.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...DM
AVIATION...13
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 1, 7:24 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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