PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 12, 11:54 PM CDT712
FXUS63 KPAH 130454
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1154 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Storm chances come back tomorrow and Tuesday. Severe potential
is limited.
- Mostly dry during mid week.
- Storm chances return on Friday. Severe potential looks
limited.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024
Updated aviation section for 06z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024
Shortwave ridging aloft is overhead today with southerly sfc winds
helping our temperatures to climb into the 80s today. Our next
system is a trof and low ejecting out of the Plains toward the
Midwest and mid Mississippi valley. PoPs start increasing Monday
with more isolated to scattered activity which will spread southwest
to northeast. Chances peak on Tuesday with more widespread activity
as the system moves overhead. Severe potential looks to be weakly
marginal at best with 500-1,000 J/kg of MUCAPE, 0-6 km bulk shear
around 20-30 kts, and mid level lapse rates around 6-6.5 degC/km.
Wednesday shortwave ridging moves through keeping us mostly dry
through Thursday. Highs will be in the 70s on Wednesday and 80s on
Thursday. Friday another trof aloft moves in from the Plains. PoPs
start increasing Thursday night into Friday and taper off Friday
night. Severe potential once again looks limited with MUCAPE around
500-1,000 J/kg, 0-6 km bulk shear around 30-40 kts, and mid level
lapse rates around 6 degC/km. There is some model discrepancy with
regards to Saturday and Sunday however. The Euro keeps the weekend
dry with an upper level shortwave ridge moving through. The GFS
keeps some PoPs around with a southern stream low aloft. Therefore
the NBM has some 20% PoPs around for Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024
VFR conditions at all sites through 12z. MVFR cigs and scattered
to numerous shra will spread east across the TAF sites from
13z-19z and will continue through the TAF period, with MVFR
vsbys predominant through the afternoon and evening hours and
accompanied by VCTS. Brief drops to IFR conditions possible with
heavier shra and tsra. Calm to light south to southeast winds
overnight will become south at 8-13kts by 13z-16z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...RST
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 12, 11:54 PM CDT---------------
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