PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 25, 6:40 AM CDT349
FXUS63 KPAH 251140
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
640 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A daily chance of showers and storms for all or a portion of
the region will continue through at least next Thursday. The
Evansville Tri State may stay dry from Thursday night through
Saturday.
- Below normal high temperatures in the middle and upper 80s
will continue through at least Sunday.
- Temperatures and humidity levels will trend upward early next
week, with head index readings 100-105 possible Monday through
next Thursday. The pattern may also be more conducive for
heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024
Visibilities have been bouncing up and down early this morning.
Could see some portion of the area with legitimate (not shallow)
dense fog, so will be monitoring for possible Dense Fog Advisory
or Special Weather Statement.
The backdoor cold front is drifting south through central
Illinois and Indiana. Scattered convection has developed along
it, but is not making much southward progress. This convection
could slip down into the I-64 corridor later this morning, most
likely after daybreak.
Convection later today will mostly be in the vicinity of this
boundary. The trend in the latest guidance is for the boundary
to stall out before clearing west Kentucky and southeast
Missouri late today. 00Z HREF indicates decent coverage (more
than the last few days), mainly over southern Illinois, but
convergence along the boundary is likely to be weak, so coverage
may not be more than scattered. Most of the convection should
be in the heat of the day, despite the presence of the boundary.
The models continue to struggle with the subtle features aloft
Friday into the weekend. Heights will increase in the wake of
the Great Lakes trough Friday, but the orphaned upper low/trough
to the southwest of the Quad State could begin to impact the
region as early as Friday night. There are signs of a warm
frontalish boundary lifting north through the area on Saturday,
then the orphaned low will open up and lift out across the
region Saturday night into Sunday. Confidence in the details of
all of this rather subtle forcing will make pinning down PoPs
rather difficult.
There will be at least isolated convection along the remnants of
the surface boundary Friday afternoon. Current consensus has
this mainly over southeast MIssouri and the Purchase Area, but
it may end up farther northeast through the mid-section of the
Quad State. There is a healthy signal for enhanced coverage of
convection over southeast Missouri and possibly southern
Illinois Saturday into Saturday night as an upper disturbance
lifts northeast around the orphaned upper low to our west.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected Sunday as
the orphaned system opens up and moves eastward across the Quad
State.
Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the primary concerns
through the weekend. However, there may be just enough flow
aloft to support a few stronger storms on Sunday, if there is
sufficient destabilization. Damaging winds would be the severe
concern.
Next week an intense upper ridge is still expected to develop
over the Plains and Rockies, putting the Quad State in northwest
flow aloft. The GFS and especially the ECMWF ensembles continue
to indicate highly anomalous low-level moisture over our region
through the work week. This low-level moisture could support
MCSs as they dive southeast through the region, leading to
significant heavy rainfall and flash flooding potential. Or, it
could just result in triple digit heat indices each afternoon.
This forecast has afternoon heat indices around 105 over much
of the region, which would be supportive of a Heat Advisory
Wednesday and Thursday. Of course, there is no reason why we
couldn't have the extreme heat and humidity in southeast
Missouri and the heavy rainfall and flooding somewhere over
eastern portions of the region. Either way next week is looking
a lot more volatile than what we have gotten used to over the
last week or so.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024
Dense fog and LIFR ceilings will gradually become VFR this
morning. The coverage of convection this afternoon is in doubt,
but it should mostly be in between KCGI and KMVN. More fog is
possible at KPAH and KCGI late tonight.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 25, 6:40 AM CDT---------------
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