IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 23, 1:25 AM EDT929
FXUS63 KIWX 230525
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
125 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few isolated showers and thunderstorms (20% chance) during
the daytime hours Monday and Tuesday.
- Increased coverage of showers and storms (30-70% chance)
Tuesday night through Wednesday.
- Dry with pleasant temperatures thereafter through at least
Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024
A stacked upper-level low is swirling overhead as of midday. While
water vapor indicates a primary moisture axis across the Ohio River
valley, dew points in the mid-60s locally could be enough for
isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms this afternoon when paired
with the aformentioned disturbance. This activity will abate by, or
soon after, sunset with a loss of daytime heating.
Generally a repeat performance during the daytime hours Tuesday,
though toward the Indiana-Michigan state line the chance for showers
and storms increases toward sunset as a trough (and cold front) drop
in from northern Minnesota. The cold-front's arrival time after
sunset works to diminish any severe weather risk, through bulk shear
and lapse rates within forecast soundings was marginal to begin
with. Because the upper-low aloft begins to wrap-up, forward
progress slows and the front lingers over the area into
Wednesday. Thus, POPs will be highest Tuesday night through
Wednesday.
The front departs early Wednesday night and high pressure moves in
Thursday through at least Saturday. Temperatures will trend warmer
by the end of the weekend as well as a strong ridge moves over the
eastern US. With it, Gulf moisture advection improves brining and
increased chance of scattered showers and storms by the start of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024
Mostly VFR conditions expected with continued surface ridging
over the OH valley. Patchy ground fog possible this morning
mainly near sunrise. Kept mention of lowered vsbys out for KSBN
but did go with some patchy fog bringing vsbys downs to MVFR
category for KFWA between 10z and 12z where smaller dew point
depressions are in place.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Andersen
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 23, 1:25 AM EDT---------------
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