ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 23, 3:55 PM EDT950
FXUS61 KILN 231955
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
355 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern will be in place through Thursday
with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms. Dry
conditions are expected for Friday and Saturday, before
thunderstorm chances return for Sunday into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A boundary continues to work through the region with scattered
showers and thunderstorms across central Ohio and across the
Scioto River Valley region. These thunderstorms will continue to
push off to the east this evening leaving mostly dry conditions
across the area overnight. There will be the potential for some
patchy river valley fog late in the overnight hours. Went close
to the blend for temperatures overnight with lows in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions to start off the day will be short lived as a
boundary sags into the region. There will be the potential for
some heavy rain and isolated damaging winds across far
northwestern portions of the region Wednesday afternoon near the
boundary. This boundary will continue to sag south across the
region keeping precipitation chances in the forecast through
Wednesday night. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the
80s and lows Wednesday night will drop into the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid level shortwave pivots southeast through the Great Lakes with a
surface cold front sagging south thru the Ohio Valley Thursday. This
will offer a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms into
Thursday evening with the best chance across the south counties.
Northwest mid and upper level flow develops with surface high
pressure building across the Great Lakes Friday and Saturday
offering dry weather conditions.
The high will shift off to the east by Sunday, leading to broad
southerly flow early next week. Mid level ridge axis to build into
the area Sunday and then quickly off to the east early next week.
A weak mid level disturbance will ride up the back side of the ridge
which will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms returning
into the west Sunday. Model solution differences exist regarding the
strength of the trof that comes thru the area early next week. Have
confidence that Monday into Tuesday will be an unsettled period but
the details are murky at this time.
Highs on Thursday and Friday will be in the lower and middle 80s or
slightly below normal. A warming trend will ensue with highs in the
mid and upper 80s Saturday and then in the upper 80s to around 90
Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Thursday night and Friday night will rise thru the period with upper
60s to around 70 expected Monday night.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A boundary moving through the region has allowed for the
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The greatest
coverage this afternoon will be around KCMH and KLCK. KILN,
KCVG, and KLUK will be right on the edge of this activity. KDAY
should stay out of most of the precipitation. This will push
east going into the evening hours and then expect dry conditions
overnight and into the morning daytime hours on Wednesday.
Additional thunderstorm development is expected Wednesday
afternoon, however only have mention in at the longer KCVG TAF
site. There will be the potential for some fog overnight. Have
MVFR vsbys mention in at KILN and KLCK and IFR conditions at
KLUK.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Thursday and
then again Sunday night.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 23, 3:55 PM EDT---------------
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