CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 19, 9:14 AM EDT608
FXUS61 KCLE 191314
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
914 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and fair weather through the weekend. Pattern
becomes more active after Monday next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
9:10 AM EDT Update...
Forecast remains valid, overall, per latest trends in obs and
model guidance. Just made a minor change to our surface wind
forecast through midday to account for ongoing
weakening/dissipation of a land breeze and expected development
of a Lake Erie lake breeze by late morning.
Previous Discussion...
Sig wx nil. Dry column will not lend itself to much in terms of
sensible weather in the near term forecast with clouds even hard to
come by through Saturday. High pressure settles in over the southern
Great Lakes with light northerly winds in place and plenty of
sun/clear skies. Temperatures a touch warmer today with upper 70s to
around 80F area wide, not as cool tonight but continuing with mainly
50s away from the lakeshore, and still warmer again Saturday in the
lower 80s. No rain/convection.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet forecast in store through much of the short term period as
surface high pressure remains overhead. High pressure exits to the
east as low pressure approaches the Ohio Valley on Monday. Cloud
cover will gradually increase from west to east Sunday onward as
increased moisture is advected into the region. Anticipate most of
the area to remain dry during the day Monday with some slight chance
to chance PoPs entering late Monday night as better moisture and
forcing enters the region. Temperatures remain seasonable through
the short term with afternoon highs in the mid 80s and overnight
lows in the mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad upper level trough over the central US will dig east across
the eastern CONUS through the long term period. Weak surface low
pressure enters the region Tuesday into Wednesday. The upper trough
becomes more defined over the region by Wednesday with an upper
level low entering from the northwest Wednesday into Thursday which
will bring more substantial/widespread showers and storms. Afternoon
highs generally remain in the low to mid 80s through Wednesday. A
surface cold front will cross the region by mid-week which will lead
to slightly cooler temperatures by Thursday. Near normal overnight
lows in the low to mid 60s will continue through the long term
period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
High pressure remains in control giving VFR conditions and winds
that will be northerly less than 10kts today.
Outlook...VFR expected through Monday morning. Isolated
showers/thunderstorms with non-VFR possible Monday afternoon
and evening with better chances for showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes region will allow for
quiet and calm conditions on Lake Erie today through the weekend.
North winds at 10 knots or less this morning and early afternoon
turn light and variable by this evening. This will allow for wave
heights to remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend. High
pressure exits to the east Sunday night into Monday as low pressure
approaches the lake. Winds will remain at 10 knots or less but will
favor a east to northeast direction Monday afternoon through Tuesday
evening.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/26
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...26
MARINE...Iverson
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 19, 9:14 AM EDT---------------
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