MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 12, 3:02 AM CST ...New MARINE...426
FXUS64 KMOB 120902
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
302 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
...New MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 301 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
- A cold front moves across the area today, with several
reinforcing shots of cool, dry air through the weekend. This
will likely bring a frost/freeze to portions of the area each
night Friday night through at least Sunday night.
- Increased winds and seas across the marine area can be expected
in the wake of the cold front. Much stronger easterly winds
become possible early next week potentially bringing hazardous
conditions to small craft.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1034 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
Dry weather conditions prevail through the weekend. A cold front
pushes across the area today, ushering in cooler, drier air to the
region with several reinforcing shots of cool/dry air through the
weekend. The coldest temperatures of the season so far are likely
Friday night through Sunday night, with coldest overnight
temperatures near or below freezing over the interior portions of
the area. Elsewhere middle to upper 30's can be expected for
overnight lows. Frost/Freeze products will likely be needed in
future forecast packages for the late week into weekend timeframe.
Once we get into early next week the forecast gets a bit more
complex as a shortwave trough embedded within the subtropical jet
transits the southern gulf coast states. Right now it seems things
have trended towards keeping this a bit more suppressed, and in
combination with a transient shortwave ahead of it moisture return
will likely be limited. This would help temper rain chances
overall for the area. Still a lot to fine tune in the coming
days, but the trend right now is towards a bit drier scenario for
early next week. Regardless, a strong surface pressure gradient
will set up as high pressure settles into the eastern CONUS and a
surface low pressure system tracks across the northern gulf,
bringing gusty winds to at least the coastal counties Monday into
Tuesday. The rip current risk remains low through the weekend,
quickly increasing to a High risk by early next week as strong
winds settle in and surf rapidly builds. It's still early at the
moment to pinpoint specifics, but a High Surf Advisory or Warning
may be needed for the Monday into Tuesday timeframe if the current
forecast holds. MM/25
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1034 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
VFR conditions prevail through the period. Light southwesterly winds
become northwesterly around 10 knots Thursday morning with gusts up
to 15-20 knots. SS/97
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Periods of moderate to strong offshore flow develop today through
the weekend behind a cold front moving across the marine waters
later today. Strong easterly flow becomes established early next
week with advisory level conditions expected and a low-end potential
for gusts to gale force. Seas build to greater than 7 feet across
the near and offshore Gulf waters in response to the strengthening
winds early next week. 07/mb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 76 45 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 76 50 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 75 53 65 45 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 72 40 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 73 39 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 69 40 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 75 42 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 12, 3:02 AM CST ...New MARINE...---------------
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