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876 FXUS64 KLIX 070545AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1145 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER....KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026- Cooler and much drier conditions are expected into early next week with the passage of a cold front.- Drier air and ongoing drought conditions will elevate the fire weather risk Sunday through Tuesday. Those areas under burn bans should avoid any outdoor burning.&&.SHORT TERM...(Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026Split upper flow continues with shortwaves in the northern streamover Lake Huron and Manitoba with a southern stream trough over Arizona this evening. At the surface, high pressure was centered from Minnesota to near Omaha, with a weak frontal boundary perhaps as far south as McComb at late evening. The current precipitable water value on the 00z LIX sounding of 0.7 inches is around the 25th percentile. Not much in the way of significant cloudcover across the area, just some cirrus, with the nearest lower clouds over Texas and Tennessee.The drier air behind the frontal boundary will continue to surge southward over the next 36 to 48 hours. Dew points that are currently in the 50s and lower 60s will be in the 40s north of Interstate 12 by afternoon, and likely in the 30s across most of the area Sunday and Monday afternoons. Some recovery in dew points is expected Tuesday. Forecast soundings would indicate no more than mid and high clouds expected until about Tuesday, as the southern stream shortwave moves across the area. The GFS is quite a bit more progressive with this shortwave than the ECMWF on the daytime Friday runs. If there's any precipitation with that shortwave passage, it may not be much more than sprinkles out of a mid level cloud deckTuesday afternoon. High temperatures likely to be in the 70s for most or all of the area through Monday, with a few areas possibly touching 80 on Tuesday if cloud cover isn't too extensive. Morning lows in the 50s for most areas this morning, then in the 40s through Tuesday morning, with the exception of portions of the New Orleans area directly downwind of Lake Pontchartrain, where the warmer waters will hold lows probably in the 50s. &&.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Friday night) Issued at 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026Medium range models trending into decent agreement in carving out a pretty deep trough over the Great Lakes, upper Ohio River Valley and eastern third of the country for the second half of the workweek. A non-zero chance of precipitation with another frontal passage around Thursday. With no significant moist inflow expected ahead of the front, rainfall amounts continue to look meager to non-existent for most areas, and while current forecast will not mentionmeasurable precipitation through the end of the week, we may eventually need to add it to the forecast for Tuesday night through Wednesday night. as the southern stream shortwave movesacross the area. Expect high temperatures to be well above normal on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the front associated with the northern streamstrong shortwave deepening the eastern trough. Behind the front will be the coolest air of the season so far, with highs Friday probably not making it to 70 degrees. If the recently arrived 07/00z GFS is any indication, even those numbers are too warm, with potential. Lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night will mainly be in the 50s, but will dip into the 40s northern half Thursday night. A few spots could drop into the 30s Friday night(just beyond the forecast package), but as noted above, there's atrend toward cooler in the new GFS, so later packages could trenddownward on lows just beyond the end of the current package. Staytuned. &&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026VFR conditions expected through the period at all terminals.&&.MARINE...Issued at 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026As the reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air reaches the coastal waters this morning into the afternoon, there will be probably a 6-12 hour period of Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines for north winds 15-20 knots. High pressure will return to the waters behind the frontal boundary, with no significant impacts to marine operations expected from Sunday until about Thursday. An early look at forecast winds for the end of next week would indicate the potential for Small Craft Advisories behind the front, but that's beyond the scope of the current forecast. &&.FIRE WEATHER...Issued at 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026For areas that missed out on significant rain last weekend and early this week (which was most of us), fuels remain very dry, with no expectation of significant wetting any time soon. With the passage of the front today, a surge of drier air will lower afternoon humidities to 30 to 40 percent north of Interstates 10 and 12 this(Saturday) afternoon, and likely well below 30 percent in those areas for at least Sunday and Monday. The usual adjustment for dewpoints behind dry fronts this time of year is to use NBM25 or sometimes even NBM10, and will go with a 50/50 NBM25/CONSALL blend fornow for the daytime hours through Monday. Fortunately, it appearsthat wind speeds for Sunday and Monday are likely to be in the 5-10 knot range, so don't anticipate Red Flag Warnings at this time. Most, but not all, counties/parishes across the northern half of the area have burn bans in place. &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...RWLONG TERM....RWAVIATION...RWMARINE...RWFIRE WEATHER...RW
