IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 6:18 AM EST111
FXUS63 KIWX 091118
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
618 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Remaining dry with above normal temperatures today into Tuesday.
- A chance for rain (40-70%) late Wednesday into Thursday.
- Cooler weather and lingering chances for lake effect showers into
Thursday night and Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026
Tranquil wx conditions and warmer than average temperatures will
persist today into Tuesday on the southern fringes of broad west-
northwest flow aloft. A substantial pattern change then ushers in a
cooler and more unsettled pattern late Wednesday through Saturday as
an upper jet streak dives down into the MS Valley, eventually
carving out an unseasonably strong 500 mb height minimum into the
Great Lakes and Northeast. A leading, compact upper wave in this
transition still looks to send a developing frontal wave southeast
into the OH Valley and central Appalachians late Wednesday into
Thursday morning. Dynamic nature to the wave and pacific origins
likely allows for an area of more substantial rain coverage,
though guidance still diverges regarding the track of the system
currently over the north Pacific. Opted to hold with NBM mid
chance PoPs for now given the lingering uncertainty.
Moist and chilly cyclonic flow behind the departing low
pressure center will keep clouds and shower chances in the
forecast then into Thursday afternoon and Friday. This regime
also sets up a favorable lake effect response parallel to the
long axis of Lake MI later Thursday through as late as Saturday
morning into far nw IN/sw MI and ne IL. Progged thermal profiles
support rain as the primary precipitation type, though it does
seem likely that snowflakes may mix in at times inland. Ridging
builds back Sunday into the first half of next week with a
return to dry wx and warming temps.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026
An area of patchy fog has developed around Lagrange County in
Indiana. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for both TAF
sites through this forecast period. Light southwesterly winds
will become more southerly late this evening.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Andersen
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 6:18 AM EST---------------
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