MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 8, 2:16 AM CST ...New MARINE...834
FXUS64 KMOB 080816
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
216 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
...New MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 216 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
- Patchy frost development is possible over our northern zones during
the early morning hours of Sunday and Monday.
- Dry conditions prevail for the start of the week, along with
warming temperatures. This could lead to an increased risk for
fire weather concerns on Monday and Tuesday.
- A strong cold front is expected to pass through the area on
Thursday, bringing much cooler temperatures. Marine winds will
also strengthen behind the front, along with building seas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1147 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
Cool, dry air continues to filter into the local area as high
pressure maintains its hold over the central US. Temperatures
through the remainder of the night, as well as Sunday night,
should bottom out in the mid to upper 30s over our northern
counties, and the low to mid 40s over our southern counties.
Although we are not anticipating temperatures dropping below
freezing, temperatures in the 30s, nearly saturated boundary-layer
conditions, clear skies, and light winds should help to support
the development of frost over the northern half of our local area
both nights. A Frost Advisory is in effect until 7AM Sunday
morning generally for areas along and north of Highway 84. Another
Frost Advisory may be needed for Sunday night for similar areas.
Highs on Sunday will be in the low 70s.
Temperatures slowly start to moderate through midweek as high
pressure weakens and pushes directly overhead. Not anticipating any
rain through Tuesday due to subsidence from the high overhead and
very limited moisture. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper
70s by Tuesday and lows should range from the low 40s north to the
mid 50s along the coast by Tuesday night. One thing to note is that
although temperatures are increasing, dew points should remain
rather low for both Monday and Tuesday. This would lead to low RH
values (~25-30% range). Although winds are expected to remain well
below Red Flag criteria, these low RH values, along with dry
antecedent conditions, may help to increase the risk for fire
weather concerns.
By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a southern stream shortwave
is expected to quickly push eastward. With upper-level flow turning
more southwesterly ahead of this shortwave, some modest moisture
return is anticipated prior to the shortwave's passage (PWATs
increasing to around 1.0-1.2 inches). This may help to spark a few
showers across the area, but overall, coverage should remain rather
limited. The next big story will come towards the end of the week as
a longwave trough quickly dives southeastward from Canada, digging
as far south as the northern Gulf. A strong cold front looks to
accompany this trough, pushing through the area sometime Thursday
afternoon/evening. Long-range guidance continues to suggest that
temperatures behind this front may drop to well below average by the
upcoming weekend, bringing the potential for the first freeze of the
season over northern portions of the area. Something we will
continue to watch over the coming days.
The rip current risk remains low through Wednesday, possibly
increasing to a Moderate Risk by Thursday. /96
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with generally
northerly winds around 5-10 knots. However, a weak sea breeze may
cause variations in wind direction along the immediate coast during
the afternoon. JGC/98
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 216 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
High pressure will continue to settle into the region today
revealing light winds and wave/seas. Winds increase tonight into
Monday morning reaching 8-10kts for protected waters, to 10-13kts for
outer waters but will be a short-lived window as winds relax going
into the daytime hours on Monday. Next notable window of impacts
will be expected Thursday morning as a front sweeps across the
region, introducing increasing northwesterly/offshore winds. At this
time, winds will likely reach Small Craft Advisory during the
daytime hours on Thursday, with sustained winds 18-28kts for Gulf
waters and higher gusts near 30 knots. Waves/seas respond reaching 2-
3ft for protected waters, 3-4ft for nearshore Gulf zones and 4-7 ft
for outer Gulf zones. Winds and wave/seas taper going into next
weekend. KLG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 72 45 75 47 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 72 52 75 54 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 73 55 76 55 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 72 40 75 41 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 71 38 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 70 38 73 39 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 74 41 77 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>058.
FL...None.
MS...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for MSZ067.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 8, 2:16 AM CST ...New MARINE...---------------
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