MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 1:47 PM CST ...New DISCUSSION...337
FXUS64 KMOB 071947
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
147 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 147 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
- A much cooler and drier airmass moves into the area tonight
into early next week. Lows in the 40's can be expected
widespread across the area, to even mid to upper 30's for
inland/northern areas where patchy frost will likely occur.
- Moderate to occasional strong northerly winds over the Gulf
this weekend will create hazardous conditions for small craft.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
As the center of a large 1025 MB surface high pressure system
centered over Missouri migrates southward, we are expecting very
chilly conditions tonight across the region as cold air advection
ramps up after sunset. Low temperatures tonight across interior
portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama will drop
into the middle to upper 30s (around 6 to 9 degrees below normal).
The combination of mostly clear skies and light winds will lead
to the development of patchy frost, especially in non-protected
and other frost-prone areas. Went ahead and issued a Frost
Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM Sunday across all of our northern
zones, but our main concern is generally along and north of a line
from Waynesboro MS to Monroeville AL to Luverne AL. Persons
living in this area should take steps now to protect sensitive
outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left
uncovered. We are expecting similar low temperatures and frost
formation for Sunday night.
The center of the surface high pressure system will gradually
weaken early next week, but a surface ridge will remain across the
Deep South through midweek. Therefore, the dry weather conditions
will persist through midweek, with high temperatures climbing
back into the middle to upper 70s by Tuesday and Wednesday. We
are still monitoring a strong upper trough forecast to exit
southeast Canada and dig southward across the entire eastern
CONUS. At this time, we are not expected much, if any, significant
rain associated with this system, but there could be enough
moisture return for at least isolated showers mainly on Thursday.
A strong surface cold front associated with this trough will push
well south of the coast and potentially bring even colder low
temperatures by the next weekend compared to this weekend. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
VFR conditions under northerly winds of 5 to 10 knots expected.
/16
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 129 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
Persistent offshore northerly flow continue this morning, reaching
08 to 14kts for protected waters to 14 to 18kts for offshore Gulf
zones. Small craft should exercise caution for Gulf waters through
noon today. Winds will taper some going into the afternoon but
remain light at 08-12 knots, increasing to 12-16kts Saturday
night/early Sunday morning. Thereafter, high pressure builds into
the region reducing winds to light and variable. Waves will remain
light ranging 1-2ft for nearshore Gulf waters to 2-3ft for outer
Gulf waters. KLG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 44 71 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 50 72 52 74 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 52 73 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 38 70 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 38 70 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 37 68 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 41 73 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM CST Sunday for ALZ051>058.
FL...None.
MS...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM CST Sunday for MSZ067.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 1:47 PM CST ...New DISCUSSION...---------------
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