MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 11:54 PM CST ...New DISCUSSION...392
FXUS64 KMOB 040554
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1154 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026
- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area
beaches through Wednesday afternoon.
- A cold front will move into the area on Wednesday, with a few
periods of rainshowers and thunderstorms across the area. The
threat for severe thunderstorms is low at this time.
- A much cooler and drier airmass moves into the area this
weekend into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026
A cold front will continue to slowly move east tonight into
Wednesday. The front will stall across northwest portions of the
area Wednesday into Thursday as it becomes parallel to the mid and
upper flow. Scattered light rain showers will continue overnight
with patchy dense fog developing across portions of southeast
Mississippi and southwest Alabama due to very moist conditions. A
dense fog advisory has been issued for parts of southeast
Mississippi and southwest Alabama. The highest rain chances will
likely be Wednesday afternoon as the frontal boundary moves into
the area, mainly northwest of I-65. No severe thunderstorms are
expected. However, forcing rapidly weakens along the front as the
main energy pulls well off the north. As a result, any showers
and thunderstorms that advance into the area will weaken as they
move east. The front finally moves east Thursday night into
Friday as a stronger shortwave moves east across the Tennessee
Valley. A few showers will be possible on Friday as the front
pushes east, however most areas will remain dry. Another fast
moving system may approach the area late in the weekend into early
next week. However, there is a large spread in the models this
far out and will maintain a dry forecast for now.
A much cooler and drier airmass moves into the area for the
weekend into early next week High temps on Sunday will be in the
mid and upper 60s with upper 60s to around 70 Monday and Tuesday
Lows in the mid and upper 30s across far northern areas will be
possible Saturday night through Tuesday night. /13
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026
MVFR to IFR ceilings are currently in place across much
of the local area. Throughout the overnight hours, ceilings are
expected to lower even further, possibly down to LIFR in spots. In
addition, patchy to areas of fog, some of which could be dense, is
expected to develop mainly for areas west of the Tombigbee River.
Any fog that does develop will dissipate a little after sunrise,
along with ceilings lifting back up to MVFR and eventually VFR by
the afternoon hours. By the afternoon, a broken line of showers and
thunderstorms should begin pushing into our southeast Mississippi
counties. This line will slowly push eastwards throughout the
remainder of the day and into the evening hours before weakening.
Expect brief reductions in visibility and ceilings in some of the
heavier activity. Ceilings should start to lower back down to MVFR
by the mid to late evening hours. Light southeasterly winds this
morning will turn more southwesterly and increase to around 5-10
knots by the afternoon hours. /96
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1204 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026
A moderate to strong easterly flow continues today. Winds
will shift southeasterly to southerly tonight as a system approaches
the area. Winds weaken to a light southerly flow Wednesday, becoming
a light and variable flow Thursday into Friday as a cold front
stalls north of the coast Wednesday night. Winds shift out of the
north, becoming light to moderate late Friday night into the weekend
as the cold front moves south over area waters. Seas of 5 to 6 feet
today gradually decrease through mid-week.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 66 82 63 82 / 20 40 40 10
Pensacola 70 82 68 80 / 40 10 20 20
Destin 71 81 69 80 / 50 30 20 30
Evergreen 64 82 63 81 / 50 40 30 10
Waynesboro 64 79 54 81 / 20 60 10 0
Camden 64 80 60 79 / 50 70 40 0
Crestview 67 82 65 82 / 50 30 20 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Wednesday for ALZ261-263-265.
High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ075-076-078-
079.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 11:54 PM CST ...New DISCUSSION...---------------
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