IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 7:17 PM EST980
FXUS63 KIWX 040017
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
717 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Sporadic wind gusts to 25 to 30 mph are possible later this
evening into the early overnight hours. Breezy conditions will
continue on Wednesday.
- Rain showers are expected to shift from west to east tonight
into Wednesday.
- Periods of lake enhanced rain showers are expected into the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
- Gusty conditions this afternoon with winds 25-35 mph.
Warm air advection driven by southerly flow has led to quite the
warm day across the Michiana region and northwestern Ohio this
afternoon with highs already in the low to mid 70s. Mostly clear
skies combined with ample mixing may allow highs today to challenge
the daily record of 76F. Regardless, it will feel more like late
summer than November across the area. Increased mixing depth around
peak heating this afternoon will also tap into an approaching LLJ
with gusts as high as 35 mph, highest across Northwest Indiana into
Southwest Michigan.
- Breezy conditions and rain showers expected Tuesday Night into
Wednesday
Water vapor imagery shows a robust trough across the middle
Mississippi Valley at present forecast to move into the region
tonight into Wednesday. The surface reflection of this will be in
the form of a cold front crossing the area during the day, with
widespread showers out ahead of it. Expect rain much of the day
Wednesday given the slow moving nature of the front as the surface
low becomes vertically aligned with the parent trough. A dry slot
moving in later Wednesday ends the rain showers, with northwest Ohio
last to dry out in the evening. REFS probabilistic guidance favors
less than 1/4" for most, with rainfall as high as 0.5" across our
southeast Indiana counties into NW Ohio.
- Cooler with lake driven rain showers into the weekend
More robust cold air arrives with persistent troughing Friday into
the weekend behind a cold frontal boundary. 850 mb temps fall to
near zero, with lake temps still in the mid teens. This will be
sufficient instability wise to generate lake effect rain showers
Thursday Night into Friday. The trough and coldest mid-level air
will depart to the east Saturday with northwest flow into early next
week. How much if any precipitation we receive if any will depend on
shortwaves embedded within the northwest flow as well as whether a
ridge across the central CONUS drives flow be more zonal for a
period early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 703 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
VFR conditions will begin this forecast but should deteriorate
to MVFR late tonight into Wednesday. Strong low level flow will
continue this evening, and in particularly late evening into
the overnight hours as pre-frontal low level jet axis across
Illinois shifts east. This should produce a period of LLWS
conditions being met at both KSBN/KFWA later this evening into
portions of the overnight. A vort lobe progressing through base
of larger scale upper trough should lift northeast to the
western Great Lakes overnight into Wednesday AM with a period of
some rain showers. A lull in these rain showers is possible for
a time Wed AM before additional scattered shower potential in
closer vicinity to the cold front from west to east during the
day. The current expectation is that axis of better pre-frontal
pooled moisture could result in MVFR cigs lifting north in the
09Z-12Z timeframe at KSBN and more likely later in the morning
at KFWA. Breezy conditions are expected to persist into
Wednesday afternoon with onset of low level cold advection.
Mixed layer depths should remain shallow through this valid
period, but even shallow mixing should support wind gusts into
the 20 to 25 knot range.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 7:17 PM EST---------------
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