IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 12:23 PM EST173
FXUS63 KIWX 031723
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
Issued by National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1223 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy and dry today with record-challenging warmth. Southerly
wind gusts of 25 mph to perhaps 35 mph.
- Rain arrives from west to east late tonight. Breezy with
lingering showers through Wednesday.
- Not as warm to end the week with lake enhanced showers at
times.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
A well defined upper-level trough is lifting north-northeast through
Kansas early this morning. Closer to home, low stratus and patchy
drizzle continues to lift north through Michigan in response to this
lifting cyclone. Stout warm air advection has brought steadily
rising temperatures on this shift with an increasing number of 60-
degree readings (normal high today is only 55). That said, morning
temperatures will be a nice spring board for afternoon highs that
will challenge the day's records: 76 degrees in 2003 and 1987 (2003
record was only at Fort Wayne). Rather cloudy immediately upstream,
but clearing is noted across the Ohio River. This could be enough
later today to truly challenge the record. Cloud cover will also
dictate afternoon mixing of the low-level jet. Forecast soundings
depict a narrow window after 1pm where guidance attempts to mix down
35 mph gusts. Overall today, breezy, decreasing clouds (especially
along and east of the I-69 corridor) and dry.
Rain slowly arrives from west to east Tuesday night according to
available near-term models (RIP HREF, NAM et. al.). Northwest Ohio
could very well be dry until after daybreak Wednesday as low
pressure becomes stacked beneath the parent upper-low, slowing the
cold front's arrival. Breezy conditions persist into Wednesday
morning as the low-level jet remains amplified over northwest Ohio.
A dry slot from this low slowly works its way east permitting some
afternoon dry hours. Cooler air behind this system seeps in
Wednesday night through Thursday along with lake-enhanced showers.
Highs in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday give way to highs in the 50s
Friday through the weekend. This whole system exits later Saturday
ending the lake-enhanced shower chance.
Beyond the weekend, subtle northwest flow results in temperatures
fairly close to normal and opportunities for 20% POPs at times as
weak disturbances ripple through the flow. Subtle ridging is noted
over the southern and central US, which, if building into the
Midwest could later induce a more zonal flow locally. However, the
core global models are teasing chilly Canadian High pressure after
Veteran's Day.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
Satellite shows earlier widespread stratus has cleared the
terminals with FEW to SCT clouds expected through the evening in
the 3-6kft range. Clouds increase in coverage overnight with the
approach of a cold front, with a few hours of LLWS favored ahead
of the front as winds near 2kft approach 45 knots. This front
will also bring rain showers after 09z continuing through the
end of the TAF period. The combination of showers and increasing
low-level moisture will cause conditions to deteriorate to MVFR,
with cigs possibly falling below 2kft after 14z (best chance at
FWA). In addition, south to south-southeast winds will be
gusting to 25 knots throughout the forecast period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Thomas
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 12:23 PM EST---------------
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