CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 12:12 AM EST612
FXUS61 KCLE 030512
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1212 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday.
2) Showers expected ahead of and with a cold front Wednesday into
Wednesday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Expansive high pressure will drift off the mid Atlantic coastal
region providing the southern Great Lakes with deep southerly flow
in the next couple of days. With 850mb temperatures climbing into
the lower teens with warm air advection, expecting high temperatures
10-20 degrees above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly
pushing record highs in places Tuesday. Wednesday should lag a bit
with the potential introduction of showers into the region ahead of
the cold front marching in from the west.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Deep upper low will push from the southern high plains towards the
upper Mississippi Valley, driving a Pacific cold front west to east
into the CWA. Line of showers moves into the western zones after 15Z
Wednesday. Looking at the low level f-gen for this system, it
appears the system may turn weakly frontolytic as it moves through
the CWA Wednesday, with the line possibly becoming more scattered as
it does so. This would correlate with the occluding nature of the
surface and upper level low pressure systems, but still expect
precipitation for all zones of the CWA and will need to watch for
the development of surface waves along the cold front. Temperatures
back down towards normal for the end of the week and into the
weekend with continued upper level troughing over the CWA and off
and on rain chances during this time as well.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
A band of lower clouds and some light showers is lifting
northeast across the area right now, bringing a period of MVFR
ceilings with some occasional IFR also observed. Drier air and
higher ceilings will lift in from the south-southwest this
morning, allowing conditions to return to VFR. VFR is then
expected to persist through the remainder of the TAFs. The main
challenge with this set of TAFs was timing the improvement to
VFR, and some AMDs may be needed early this morning. South-
southeast winds in the 5-10kt range will shift south-southwest
and increase slightly to 8-14kt with some 20-25kt gusts Tuesday.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Offshore winds 10-20kts through early Wednesday ahead of a cold
front will mean wave heights increase progressively away from shore.
In general, 2ft or less for the nearshore zones, and 2-4ft in the
open water zones should be expected during this time. A cold front
late Wednesday/Wednesday night turns winds more southwesterly 10-
20kts through Thursday, with wave heights in the nearshore zones
east of Cleveland now in the 1-3ft range while wave height forecast
s for the other zones remains the same.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
11-03 77(1987) 76(2015) 79(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961)
11-04 80(2003) 77(2015) 79(2003) 76(2015) 77(2003) 78(2015)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...26
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 12:12 AM EST---------------
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