JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 2:44 PM EDT705
FXUS63 KJKL 301844
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
244 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather with mild afternoons and cool nights will persist
through Saturday.
- A potential for rain will return by Sunday, with periodic rain
chances through the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 735 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2026
A cold front continues to sag south of the OH River and is
nearing the Interstate 64 corridor at this time. Light southerly
or calm winds were occurring ahead of the front, while light north
to northeast winds were reported north of it. Bands of mainly
high clouds are passing overhead and some fog is present in
portions of the KY, Big Sandy, and Cumberland basins. This fog
should lift and dissipate within a couple hours after sunrise.
Otherwise, the boundary will continue sagging south and a few
clouds in the 5 to 6kft agl range cannot be completely ruled out
along and/or just behind it as has occurred recently in WV.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 424 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2026
(An updated short term discussion will be sent shortly.)
Early this morning, a 500 mb trough extended across portions of
central and eastern Canada to the Great Lakes, while an upper level
ridge centered in southeastern portions of the Gulf extended
northwest into the mid MS Valley. Further west, an upper trough was
gradually working into the western Conus. A lead shortwave trough
extended from NM to sections of northeastern Mexico and was
approaching the Southern Plains. Locally over the OH Valley,
westerly flow aloft was present resulting in passing high clouds. At
the surface, high pressure was centered over the Southern
Appalachians, while another sfc ridge of high pressure extended from
portions of Alberta and Saskatchewan to the upper MS Valley and
sections of the western Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a sfc low preceding
the troughing in Canada was nearing the Maritimes vicinity with an
associated frontal zone trailing into the Northeast to the Lower OH
Valley to sections of the Central Plains. This boundary was sagging
toward eastern KY and was moisture starved this far southwest. There
were areas of low to mid level clouds in its vicinity. Ahead of the
front across eastern KY, valleys and low lying areas were generally
in the low to mid 40s, while ridgetop locations and some other more
open terrain locations were in the 50s. Although some valley fog is
likely present, so far there has been minimal signals of it on
satellite and KY Mesonet webcams.
Today and tonight, the upper trough in Canada will rotate to the
north and east, with the sfc low also moving further to the north
and east and the trailing frontal zone moving east of the eastern
seaboard. Meanwhile, upper ridging becomes centered in the eastern
Gulf/Caribbean into the Southeast with its axis approaching eastern
KY from the west late tonight. With the ridging in place, the
southward progress of the boundary should slow over
southern/southwestern portions of the area and eventually become
rather diffuse by late tonight. Sfc high pressure builds across the
Great Lakes and into the mid Atlantic states behind the boundary. At
the same time, the axis of 500 mb troughing/lead shortwave is
progged to move into portions of the Central Conus and approach the
Lower MS Valley. The 500 mb ridge axis moves east of eastern KY on
Saturday and the upper flow becomes southwest to west southwest as
the first in a series of shortwave troughs approach. Moisture should
increase at high and then mid levels ahead of it, but low level
moisture will be slower to increase.
What valley fog that develops should lift and dissipate within a
couple hours of sunrise this morning at the latest. Otherwise, as
the boundary sags south across the area today, the main effect will
be to change the direction of light winds to the north and
northeast. Dewpoints should also increase some as well, especially
near the boundary, with drier air slower to move in, filtering into
more northern locations especially near and north of I-64 late.
There will be limited moisture near 850 mb with the front and at
least some low clouds near 5kft agl are possible as it passes.
Otherwise, moisture will increase at high and mid levels from this
evening through the day on Saturday. This will result in plenty of
high clouds with a few mid clouds also possible later on Saturday.
With the anticipated cloud cover and the boundary in the vicinity
tonight, the difference in lows between valley/low lying areas and
ridges should be much more minimal compared to what is occurring
this morning and recent days. Also, given the degree of cloud cover,
only may minor downward adjustments to dewpoints for Saturday
afternoon compared to NBM deterministic.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2026
After roughly two weeks of dry weather, rain should finally make a
comeback during the long term period. The question is when. What at
one time looked like a good bet for damp weather returning on Sunday
is continuing to look less likely, with a greater probability for
rain now waiting until later in the new week.
The start of the period will see a large but meager-for-its-size
shortwave trough rippling through what would otherwise be a sizable
upper ridge over most of the eastern CONUS. The trough axis should
be laid out roughly from IA to the FL panhandle Sunday morning and
will pass eastward over the JKL forecast area Sunday night and early
Monday. At the surface, high pressure centered along or offshore of
the Mid Atlantic coast will ridge westward along the
central/southern Appalachians, with a cold air damming scenario
setting up in the flow against the eastern side of the mountains and
downsloping here. Along with downsloping, our low level flow will
still be largely originating out of the high, with moisture
advection off the Atlantic and gulf wrapping around us to the south
and west early in the week. Thus, as the initial upper trough passes
over, our moisture should still be limited in the lower levels. Will
look for mid-high clouds and virga to be abundant, but it is
questionable how much if any precip will be realized. The GFS has
trended toward the more consistently drier ECMWF for the early
week wave, and our POP is now dropping further in this forecast
cycle, as deterministic runs of all models are now mainly dry.
The western and northwestern portions of our area, furthest
removed from downsloping and closest to the moisture channel,
would have the best shot at rain.
By the time our early week trough weakens and departs to our east
Monday night, another stronger long wave trough should be
progressing eastward across the central CONUS, accompanied by a deep
low, or series of lows. Models do not quite agree on the evolution
of this system late in the week as it affects our area. The ECMWF is
deeper with the upper trough and slower to close off an upper low
compared to the GFS. However, they both eventually close off an
upper low and track it nearby at about the same time frame, with
another large surface low deepening significantly as it passes. The
stronger ECMWF solution results in colder air in the system's wake
by Friday. At this stage, the result of latest developments is an
increase in POP with the system in the Wednesday to Thursday time
frame, and low confidence in the temperature forecast by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2026
VFR conditions with gradually increasing high clouds is expected
at the terminals through the TAF period.
A dry cold front will continue moving south through eastern
Kentucky over the next 6 to 9 hours, reaching the TN border by 03z
this evening. The main impact of the boundary will be to change
the direction of light winds to the north and northeast by 00Z
and then eventually to the east and southeast through the
remainder of the TAF period. A few valley locations in the south
could experience MVFR or lower reductions tonight, but the TAF
sites are not expected to be impacted.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 2:44 PM EDT---------------
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