PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 12:53 PM EDT495
FXUS61 KPBZ 261653
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1253 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Little change to forecast thinking through Saturday. Models
continue to trend slightly downward with potential rainfall
totals Sunday/Monday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Quiet weather and above-average temperatures continue
through at least Saturday. The next chance of rain may arrive
Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Confidence in the lack of measurable precipitation through
Saturday remains high as surface high pressure will remain in
control.
A cold front is still forecast to drop across the region
tonight. Moisture and support for lift still appear to be too
meager to support measurable precipitation. However, enough
low-level moisture is progged to create near-surface saturation
as a subsidence inversion sets up behind the boundary late
tonight. Areas of fog and low stratus may develop as a result.
Some spotty non-measurable precipitation in the form of drizzle
cannot be totally ruled out.
The boundary then eventually lifts back northward as a warm
front during the midweek period, opening the door to southwest
flow aloft and a slow warming trend. By Thursday, high
temperatures some 10 to 15 degrees above normal appear likely.
It also appears likely that additional frost/freeze headlines
will not be needed ahead of the November 1st cutoff of the
growing season. A shortwave riding through WSW/ENE oriented
500mb contours across the Great Lakes later this week will most
likely not produce precipitation in our CWA, although a few
model scenarios paint very light precipitation north of I-80
Thursday night.
Ensembles are still suggesting that a southern Great Plains
shortwave riding up the Ohio Valley could provide our next best
chance of rain later this weekend While it does appear that this
system may end the dry stretch for most of the area, strength
and timing differences in the various members continues to cast
doubt on receiving a significant, wetting rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR favored through most of the TAF period with scattered to
broken coverages of passing cirrus.
The exception is increasing probabilities (ranging from 20-60%)
from hi- res models for a narrow band of LIFR fog/cigs to
develop along a weak frontal passage overnight that stalls near
to just north of the I-70 corridor. Though spotty MVFR
visibilities could develop too, it's most likely an all-or-
nothing fog scenario; either enough clearing plus moisture
convergence along/ahead of the boundary result in 1/2mile or
less visibilities, or too much cirrus prevents necessary cooling
and fog doesn't develop at all.
Outlook...
Surface high pressure will maintain high confidence in VFR
conditions through at least Thursday (low probabilities for cigs
and light precip return Friday around NW PA with another
stalled boundary). More likely, these conditions continue until
an upper trough/surface cold front passage sometime Sunday into
early next week.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CL
AVIATION...Frazier
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 12:53 PM EDT---------------
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