PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 16, 5:42 AM EDT117
FXUS61 KPBZ 160942
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
542 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Storm chances continue across the Ohio River Valley before
drier weather and seasonable temperatures return behind a
Wednesday cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Active weather continues until the passage of a cold front on
Wednesday.
- Continued well above normal temperatures.
__________________________________________________________________
Uncertainty in the forecast continues as upstream development
will largely dictate our weather until the passage of a
Wednesday cold front. Convection will be possible again this
afternoon. Damaging wind remains the main threat, though
isolated tornadoes and large hail can note ruled out.
Similar to Monday, the source of uncertainty surrounds weak
forcing and storm development. Cloud coverage and subsidence in
the wake of the remnants of a morning MCS should limit
development for much of the day. Actually, the majority of CAMs
suggest limited development. If storms remain cold pool-
balanced, the tornado threat may be a bit higher, otherwise,
winds will remain the primary threat in downbursts with
sufficient dry air in the mid levels. SPC has maintained the
Slight Risk across the region for today.
A more stout shortwave trough dropping into the Great Lakes on
Wednesday will finally help to push a cold front along for an
eventual Wednesday afternoon/night passage, bringing a more
concentrated precipitation area Wednesday, but then an end to
the convective threat behind it.
Heat and humidity will continue to be part of the story during
the early part of the week. The potential for advisory-level
heat index values of 100 or more on Tuesday depending on
convective extent and timing. The current forecast update
tended towards the higher end of temperature guidance, although
at this time there is only about a 15% chance we exceed
advisory criteria. The only way that we realize that at this
point is mostly clear skies. Guidance still has a large spread
on cloud cover dependent on the progression of the
aforementioned overnight MCS. Will keep an eye on things, but
confidence was too low to issue and products for tomorrow at
this point. Nonetheless, cumulative heat stress will approach
major stage for most, so avoid prolonged exposure to the
elements and stay hydrated.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A drier and cooler pattern will ensue on Thursday and continue
into next weekend.
_________________________________________________________________
Dry and cooler conditions return Thursday with expanding high
pressure across the Great Lakes and northeast CONUS into next
weekend. With much drier air in place conditions will be much
more comfortable with dewpoints back down into the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Diurnal shower/storm chances increase slightly with increased
moisture.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Rising heights Saturday/Sunday in response to increased
troughing over the Central Plains may bring moisture back from
the south, leading to increased diurnal precipitation chances,
mainly southeast of Pittsburgh. This will also result in a
warming trend through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR is expected through much of the day. Mixing will likely
result in SW wind gusts to 20kt by mid morning. CU rule and
model soundings indicate a scattered to broken CU layer will
develop by mid to late morning as convective temperatures are
reached. Models differ on the extent and timing of convective
development through the day. Most guidance indicates a shortwave
will track across the region from late morning through the
afternoon. Included Prob30 for thunder and restrictions at each
airport for the most likely time of occurrence, tied to the
timing of the shortwave passage.
Convection should wane Tuesday evening as instability wanes, and
with a lack of forcing.
.Outlook...
Cig/vsby restrictions are possible Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning with patchy low level moisture in place. Showers and
thunderstorms, and associated restrictions, are likely with the
passage of a Wednesday cold front. VFR returns Thursday through
Saturday under building high pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...CL/Milcarek/88
LONG TERM...CL/Milcarek/88
AVIATION...WM
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 16, 5:42 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
