MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 12:22 AM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...574
FXUS64 KMOB 220522
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1222 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
- Moderate to strong northeast winds may create hazardous
conditions for small craft over most of the marine area Friday
night into Monday morning.
- A High Risk of rip currents is expected for beach areas from
Saturday through Sunday night.
- Dry conditions continue through the forecast period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Now through Saturday night, a mean upper trough remains located
along the East Coast into the weekend, with an upper ridge
stretching north along the Mississippi River. A nor'easter located
off the Mid Atlantic region moves off, with additional shortwave
energy moving into the mean trough. This energy organizes into a
closed system off the Carolina coast, which then meanders south to
over the southern tip of Florida by Saturday night. An associated
surface low is slow to develop, eventually forming a weak low over
the Caribbean. The pressure gradient along the East Coast to Gulf
tightens as a surface high organizes over the Mid-Atlantic region,
bringing increasing northeasterly flow over the Southeast and
associated waters. A drier airmass over the forecast area and nearby
for the weekend is maintained over the period. The forecast remains
dry, but increasing northeasterly winds will may an increase in the
risk of fire issues when combined with lower daytime relative
humidities. The increasing northerly flow also brings a bit cooler
airmass, with high temperatures falling closer to seasonal norms for
the weekend. The ridge west of the forecast area will help to create
a west to east gradient of temperatures, with higher temperatures
over western portions of the forecast area, cooler east. Around 80
east to low 80s west fall into the mid 70s east/upper 70s west by
Saturday. The dry airmass will help overnight radiational cooling,
with low temperatures remaining below seasonal norms, especially
well inland. Low temperatures ranging from the mid 40s north of
Highway 84 to mid 50s along and south of the I-10 corridor expected.
Sunday through Wednesday sees a stream of shortwave energy moving
through a mean upper trough over the western Conus and over the
upper ridge, shifting the ridge south, and a weak shortwave trough
passing over the Southeast Wednesday. With little to no moisture
return over the Southeast as the surface high over the eastern Conus
is maintained, a dry forecast continues. High temperatures see a
rise to well above seasonal norms through the extended, and low
temperatures remaining below seasonal norms.
Taking a look at the Rip Risk on area beaches, a Low Risk is
maintained through the rest of the week. With the tightening
pressure gradient over the Gulf, increasing northeast to easterly
winds will bring increased swell to area beaches and a return of
High Risk of Rip Currents this weekend into the coming week.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Light to moderate northeasterly winds will continue through
Friday. Moderate to strong northeasterly to easterly winds develop
Friday night and linger into the weekend. Wind gusts may approach
gale force mainly well offshore Saturday night and Sunday. A Small
Craft Advisory will likely become necessary for much of the marine
area starting Friday and running until ending at some point on
Monday.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 53 80 51 74 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 58 79 56 75 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 59 79 56 75 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 47 79 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 47 80 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 47 77 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 49 79 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 12:22 AM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...---------------
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