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746 FXUS64 KMOB 141942AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL242 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Monday)Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid level trough swinging into the Lower Mississippi Valley with mid level ridging off the SE US coast. Persistent southwesterly flow has allowed an abundance of moisture to filter into the region, with PW values above the 90th percentile for this time of year (>2.15 inches). Showers and thunderstorms are developing over central Mississippi, along a convergence axis and enhanced by shortwaves rotating around the eastern periphery of the trough. Expect this activity to move into our northern counties over the next couple of hours. Meanwhile, isolated thunderstorms were developing along the seabreeze which has lifted to near the I-10 corridor. Thunderstorms are expected to dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Outside of thunderstorms, temperatures will continue to climb this afternoon, warming into the mid 90 to upper 90s. Heat indices will reach 105 to 110 degrees and a Heat Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM. Overnight lows will fall into the lower to mid 70s, except along the coast where lows will remain in the upper 70s. The upper level trough will remain over the region on Monday, with several shortwaves moving through the area. This will keep a higher confidence and coverage of thunderstorms over the area through the day, with the best chances during the afternoon as the seabreeze moves inland and provides a focus for convection. Temperatures will be similar to those today, with highs warming into the lower to mid 90s once again. Heat indices will be in the 105 to 110 degree range again on Monday. /73SHORT AND LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024The initial trough moving through the area on Monday will gradually weaken and flow aloft will briefly become zonal. Despite this, weak shortwaves will continue to move through the region, bringing a greater coverage for afternoon convection each afternoon. By Wednesday, a trough over the Northern Plains will amplify as it moves eastward, with a weak surface front trailing from its parent low over the Great Lakes. The trough will move eastward through the latter part of the week, sending the front eastward and into the region by Thursday. Model consensus is decent enough to warrant definite PoPs in for the latter half of the work week, when the the trough begins to move through the area. Confidence on just howfar south the front makes it and the timing of it is low, so highPoPs will continue into Saturday as well. Temperatures through the period will be a tad cooler, given the lower heights, cloud cover, and rain potential. Expect highs in the upper 80s and overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. /73&&.MARINE...Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024Light winds will follow a diurnal pattern into midweek with onshore flow during the day and offshore flow at night. Expect light southwesterly to westerly winds early next week.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 75 93 76 93 76 94 76 92 / 30 70 10 70 10 60 30 80 Pensacola 77 92 79 92 79 92 78 91 / 20 50 20 60 20 60 40 80 Destin 80 92 81 91 80 91 80 90 / 30 40 20 60 20 60 30 70 Evergreen 73 94 74 94 74 94 73 92 / 30 60 20 70 10 70 30 80 Waynesboro 73 96 74 96 74 97 73 93 / 30 40 10 60 10 60 30 80 Camden 73 94 74 93 74 94 73 92 / 30 30 20 70 20 70 30 90 Crestview 74 95 74 95 74 94 74 94 / 30 60 10 70 10 70 20 80 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>053-059-060- 261>266.FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
