[Alert]The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 16, 19:57z for portions of ILN

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The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 16, 19:57z for portions of ILN

190 
WUUS01 KWNS 161959
PTSDY1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2024

VALID TIME 162000Z - 171200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... TORNADO ...

0.02   44267338 43717235 42847262 42447392 42227598 43167579
       43907551 44327464 44267338
0.02   40510019 40810065 41390093 42220051 42799982 42979832
       41999692 40809666 40299750 40510019
&&

... HAIL ...

0.05   45287328 44347151 42727168 40177357 39207489 38627608
       38277880 38138207 38548297 39518296 40218207 42147934
       43817847
0.05   37770464 38810471 41210401 42390317 43230214 43760122
       44049952 43499693 42519571 40479543 38409030 38188813
       38528550 36708586 35948964 35229437 34879736 34900059
       34930271 35780374 36630435 37770464
0.15   42759988 43009836 41909696 41329684 40339672 40029803
       40059963 40230017 40460045 41380098 42210054 42759988
0.15   38030374 38710313 38260069 37449862 36899853 36640021
       36800198 37030367 38030374
0.15   45247410 43617304 42647330 42467397 42207598 43237577
       43837555 45107530
&&

... WIND ...

0.05   31311224 32621191 33381151 33551067 32660911 31080895
0.05   38277458 38037571 36997718 35417821 35298014 35928129
       36958064 37338145 36988390 36528689 34928909 34259142
       34649349 34929742 34880042 34960268 35820381 36580432
       37650477 38640516 40430500 42440317 43210216 43780119
       44039946 43599724 43229621 42769561 42069563 40649520
       39879381 39289148 38939001 38328718 38978512 40628328
       42348164 99999999 45597098 43526962 42536976 40327260
0.15   45487358 44177153 43467013 42467051 41427270 40137360
       38667512 38347660 38247774 38377874 38497980 38558024
       38868175 38978188 39318174 40257984 40837817 41307714
       42107648 44657631
0.15   36978642 36529142 36619428 37379485 38159374 38409258
       37608944 37618783 38048590 37838553 37278560 36978642
0.15   42240052 42759984 43039834 42949737 42409635 42079600
       41319590 40309675 39999806 40059964 40240019 40430044
       41390097 42240052
0.15   38270065 37219811 36749791 36359792 35899872 35760000
       35830124 36410336 36860368 38070374 38700314 38270065
0.30   44227325 43637243 42847261 42447398 42227599 43197579
       43857555 44077510 44197465 44227325
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... CATEGORICAL ...

ENH    43197579 43857555 44077510 44197465 44227325 43637243
       42847261 42447398 42227599 43197579
SLGT   45487358 44177153 43467013 42467051 41427270 40137360
       38667512 38347660 38247774 38558024 38868175 38978188
       39318174 40257984 40837817 41307714 42107648 44657631
SLGT   38159374 38409258 37608944 37618783 38048590 37838553
       37278560 36978642 36529142 36619428 37379485 38159374
SLGT   42240052 42759988 43039834 42949737 42409635 42079600
       41319590 40309675 39999806 40059964 40230017 40430044
       41380098 42240052
SLGT   38710313 38270065 37219811 36749791 36359792 35899872
       35760000 35830124 36410336 36860368 38030374 38710313
MRGL   31311224 32621191 33381151 33551067 32660911 31080895
MRGL   45597098 43526962 42956970 99999999 42536976 40327260
       99999999 38277458 38037571 36997718 35417821 35298014
       35928129 36958064 37338145 36488694 34928909 34259142
       34649349 34909712 34930271 35820381 36580432 38640516
       40430500 42440317 43230214 43780119 44049952 43599724
       43229621 42769561 42069563 40649520 39879381 38939001
       38328718 38978512 40628328 42348164
TSTM   47708557 47359026 46759217 45809293 44859365 43849435
       42989492 42009528 41629522 41249500 41039490 40829449
       40799377 41019284 41639087 42548906 43198744 43898609
       44698457 45768258 99999999 49730884 46700733 45740652
       45320570 45300502 45770416 46490346 46600185 46770033
       47469950 48579879 49819657 99999999 45592510 45572286
       45472223 45062004 44031858 42951680 42131545 41921413
       42221286 43691236 45201081 46031107 46921209 47641414
       48131551 48581714 49541915 99999999 32201697 33281710
       33851701 34471667 34831605 35431584 36541573 37161607
       37591652 37601731 37221818 37051900 37341968 38182028
       40042110 40912149 41582229 41942299 42742392 43512483
       99999999 25929839 26829806 28409729 30609454 31889296
       32629224 33109235 33419297 33609361 33699727 33620036
       33250441 32930563 32630619 32180647 31700626 31500577
       31210488 30990379 30250200 29690105 28790059 28400058

&&
THERE IS A ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE
SYR 25 ESE ART 45 E ART 25 WSW SLK 20 SSW BTV LEB 20 WSW EEN 25 SSW
ALB BGM 15 ENE SYR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE
MSS 15 WSW MWN 15 SE PWM 25 ENE BOS 30 NE BDR 35 SSE JFK 30 NE SBY
10 WNW NHK 40 ENE CHO 30 SW EKN 35 NNW CRW 25 SE UNI 15 W PKB 25 W
LBE 15 W UNV 10 WNW IPT 20 ESE ELM 45 NNW ART.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW
SZL 25 WSW JEF 15 SW MDH 35 SSW EVV 15 SW SDF 25 SSE SDF 50 ENE BWG
BWG 30 ESE UNO 25 E GMJ 25 NW JLN 40 SSW SZL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
MHN 15 NNE ANW 40 NNE ONL YKN SUX 20 NNE TQE OMA BIE 40 NW CNK 45
NNE HLC 20 E MCK 20 NNE MCK 25 NW LBF 30 ENE MHN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE
LIC 25 N GCK 25 ESE P28 25 N END END 45 NE CSM 55 WNW CSM 15 NE BGD
10 WSW CAO 40 NW CAO 10 W LHX 50 SE LIC.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 SW
TUS 50 ESE GBN 30 E PHX 65 SW SOW 35 ESE SAD 45 SE DUG.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N
BML 35 ESE PWM 55 E PSM ...CONT... 65 E BOS 40 SE ISP ...CONT... 50
E SBY 15 WNW WAL 35 SSE RIC 15 WSW GSB 45 W SOP 15 NNE HKY 15 S PSK
15 WNW BLF 30 ESE CKV 45 NNE UOX 30 E PBF 25 WNW HOT 45 N ADM 50 NE
CVS 45 NNW TCC 15 SE RTN 25 WSW COS FCL 25 S CDR 55 ENE CDR 30 SE
PHP 20 NNW 9V9 25 W FSD 35 SE FSD 20 WNW SLB 15 WNW DNS 15 ESE SDA
15 WNW CDJ ALN 30 NE EVV 40 WSW LUK 35 SE FDY 65 ESE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NNW ANJ 30 S GNA
DLH 55 ENE STC 20 W MSP 15 NNE FRM 20 SE SPW DNS 25 SSE DNS 40 NNE
SDA 35 NE SDA 35 WNW LWD 15 NNE LWD 20 WSW OTM 25 WNW MLI JVL 30 NE
MKE 25 SSE MBL 25 N HTL 65 NE APN ...CONT... 90 NNE HVR 70 WNW MLS
55 SSW MLS 15 WSW 4BQ 20 ESE 4BQ 35 WNW 2WX 40 SW DIK 45 ESE DIK 20
E BIS 55 SSW DVL 30 N DVL 75 NNE HCO ...CONT... 70 WSW AST 10 W PDX
20 ESE PDX 65 SE DLS 35 NNE BNO 50 SW BOI 40 ENE OWY 40 SSE TWF 30 W
MLD 20 NW IDA 40 SSW LVM 20 NNE BZN 25 N HLN 45 S GPI 35 N 3TH 70
NNE GEG 75 NNE OMK ...CONT... 40 SSE SAN 40 N SAN 25 ESE RAL 25 SSE
DAG 40 E DAG 60 SW LAS 15 ESE DRA 35 N DRA 45 SE TPH 35 SSW TPH 15
SE BIH 40 WSW BIH 40 N FAT 50 SSW TVL 60 E RBL 50 ESE MHS 20 N MHS
30 SSW MFR 50 NNE 4BK 30 WNW OTH ...CONT... 20 SSW MFE 45 NNE MFE 25
E NIR 45 SSE LFK 15 NE IER 15 WNW MLU 30 ESE ELD 15 NW ELD 25 ENE
TXK 35 W GYI 55 S CDS ROW 30 ENE ALM 15 SSW ALM 25 NNW ELP 10 SE ELP
40 ESE ELP 45 S GDP 45 NNE MRF 20 NE 6R6 25 NNW DRT 45 SSE DRT 70
SSE DRT.

Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 16, 19:57z for portions of ILN

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