IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 9, 9:39 PM EDT626
FXUS63 KIND 100139
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
939 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Increasing Clouds tonight and Saturday.
- Rain likely Saturday night into Sunday due to tropical remnants,
total amounts trending down.
- Cooler late next week.
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026
Temperatures have once again been cooling off faster than recent
model guidance. High level cirrus on the fringes of Hurricane Isaias
will continue to stream northward, but will remain fairly thin
for the next few hours, before gradually increasing and thickening
after 06Z per satellite trends. The net result is temperatures
will continue to gradually fall another 6-8 degrees from current
readings through 06Z before leveling off afterwards. Otherwise
rest of forecast remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026
Surface analysis this afternoon shows high pressure east of Indiana,
over the middle Atlantic states. A warm front was found over IA,
extending east into NRN IL. The remnants of a thunderstorm cluster
was riding the front over nrn IL. Light SE flow was in place across
Central Indiana. High convective debris clouds were found over
northern Indiana, moving east and dissipating. The cloud system from
the tropical system approaching the gulf coast was spreading
northward across KY and TN. Dew points across Indiana were in the
upper 40s to lower 50s.
Tonight...
Partly cloudy skies will be expected this evening as the clouds
across the northern half of the state continue to progress eastward
while the cloud shield from the south makes steady progression north.
The cloud shield should arrive overnight, providing high clouds.
Forecast soundings show this saturation aloft arriving overnight,
with very dry conditions within the lower levels. Thus increasing
clouds will be expected tonight. With the increasing clouds across
the area, overnight lows will be slightly warmer, in the lower 50s.
Saturday...
Little overall change is expected on Saturday. The tropical system
to the south will continue to progress northward, spreading mid and
high cloud cover across Central Indiana through the day The lower
levels look to remain dry. HRRR suggests some initial bands of rain
could arrive across southern Indiana by late afternoon and early
evening, but overall most the day should be mostly cloudy.
Temperatures will be somewhat warm and more humid with the arrival
of a tropical air mass. Look for highs around 80.
Saturday Night and Sunday...
This window of time will be the most impactful from the Hurricane
remnants. Models show the mid level low pushing to KY and across
eastern KY on Saturday Night and Sunday respectively. Cyclonic flow
will provide ample forcing for moisture that will spread across the
northwest side of the system and rain pops will be high. Forecast
soundings suggest pwats around 1.5 inches. Best wrap around moisture
will be across SE central Indiana, including places like Rushville,
North Vernon, Greensburg and Columbus. Thus, highest pops will be
used in those locations. Farther north, at LAF and OKK, moisture may
not even reach these places, and much lower pops will be used.
Sunday Night...
Forecast soundings show dry air and top down subsidence building in
the column on Sunday Night. This will be due to the departure of the
remnants to the middle Atlantic states and the arrival of strong
upper ridging over the Mississippi valley, building eastward. This
will allow a surface high along with its associated ridge axis to
build across Indiana from the south. Overall, decreasing cloudiness
on Sunday Night.
Monday...
Some upper ridging will bring quiet and warm weather to the area on
Monday. Highs will reach the lower and middle 80s.
Tuesday...
A cold front will move through on Tuesday. The front won't have much
moisture to work with, so will only have some low PoPs for parts of
the area. Highs will generally be in the lower 80s.
Wednesday and beyond...
An upper trough across the southwestern USA will eject and phase
with a northern stream trough, creating a large upper system that
will influence the eastern half of the country into the first part
of the weekend. This will bring first a warm front then a potent
cold front through the area.
As is typical with these situations, there remains a good amount of
uncertainty in the details. Will thus have broad, mainly chance
category PoPs for Wednesday through Friday.
Highs will be in the 70s Wednesday and Thursday, and some 80s are
possible depending on how the system develops. Cooler air will begin
arriving on Friday, with highs in the 60s.
Some guidance has next Saturday's afternoon temperatures only in the
40s, with a potential frost that night. Will keep an eye on it.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026
Impacts:
-Gusty winds up to 20 kts developing late Saturday afternoon at KBMG
and KIND.
-MVFR ceilings and showers developing Saturday evening at KIND.
Discussion:
Bands of cirrus clouds are moving into the southern horizon of the
terminals this evening. These clouds are on the far leading edge of
Hurricane Isaias. A broad area of high pressure centered over New
England is keeping winds mainly out of the E-SE with speeds expected
to be generally under 5 kts overnight.
As the remnants of Isaias move northward tonight into Saturday the
pressure gradient will begin to increase between this system and the
aforementioned high pressure with winds gradually increasing to
around 10 kts by early Saturday afternoon. In addition, and more
noticeable initially, will be the marked increase in cloud cover
than what has been seen around central Indiana for almost a week.
Copious high clouds will give way to a broken to overcast mid level
cloud deck by early-mid afternoon.
As precipitation associated with the remnants of Isaias move
northward, cloud ceilings will lower even more down to the MVFR
category for IND by late Saturday evening. Some model guidance hints
at possible IFR as soon as 03Z at KIND, but confidence is lacking in
that rapid lowering of ceilings heights despite onset of precip. In
addition to lowering ceilings, winds will begin to gust during the
late afternoon ahead of the precip as well as during the precip with
momentum transfer of stronger winds aloft likely to be enhanced
initially.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Crosbie
AVIATION...Crosbie
DISCUSSION...Puma/50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 9, 9:39 PM EDT---------------
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