JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 3:35 PM EDT989
FXUS63 KJKL 051935
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
335 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather with mild days and cool nights is expected through
the end of the week.
- The next possibility of rain is not until the start of next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
Persistent dry west to northwest flow aloft will prevail during
the period. Meanwhile, surface high pressure supplying our dry air
mass will pass nearby, moving from the upper Great Lakes this
afternoon to near the Mid Atlantic Coast by dawn on Wednesday.
This will keep our skies clear (aside from nightly valley fog).
Each night will feature good radiating conditions, leading to
valley fog development, especially in southeast KY.
Dew points are currently hitting upper 30s where mixing has been
most effective today, and see no reason why our coldest valleys
won't be able to dip a little below 40 by dawn on Tuesday. Won't
completely rule out some spotty light frost, but have not included
it in the forecast at this point, thinking that the normally
colder deep valleys will tend to fog instead. A return of warm
air advection on Tuesday night should lead to larger ridge/valley
temperature differences than tonight. Low level moisture beginning
to increase on Tuesday night should also keep temperatures a
little bit milder in valleys as compared to tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
The period is expected to begin with an upper level ridge centered
off the southwest U.S coast, with an upper low centered in the
Hudson Bay vicinity and a trough extending into the Upper MS Valley
and parts of the Great Lakes. At the surface, a ridge of high
pressure should extend from the Southern Appalachians into the
Atlantic, while a sfc front in advance of troughing extending into
the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes should extend into northern MI
to the Central Plains. Meanwhile, a lingering frontal zone should
extend across portions of the Gulf.
Wednesday to Thursday night, the upper low in Canada should become
centered in portions of Quebec, while the associated shortwave
trough moves across the Great Lakes Wednesday and Wednesday night
and across portions of the OH Valley on Thursday. Further west,
upper ridging should become centered in the Pacific to the west and
southwest of Baja, with ridging continuing to extend into the western
Conus. Downstream, by late Thursday night, a 500 mb trough axis is
anticipated from Quebec into the eastern Great Lakes to Central to
Southern Appalachians. Guidance generally also has a weak upper low
in or near TX by Thursday night and guidance (especially GFS) also
points toward possible tropical system formation potentially as
early as this time frame or at least a sfc low somewhere in the
central to southwestern Gulf. Sfc low pressure in advance of the
upper low in Canada and its associated shortwave should move across
the Great Lakes and Northeast, but the southern end will likely
become ill-defined or diffuse as it approaches the OH Valley. A
ridge of sfc high pressure should generally remain through this
period in the southern to central Appalachians with a trend of 500
mb height rises over the northern portions of the Gulf states into
the TN Valley and Southern Appalachians by later Thursday night.
For eastern KY, the pattern should favor a moderation in high
temperatures from Wednesday to Thursday and a ridge/valley
temperature split for Wednesday night and probably Thursday night as
well. Overnight lows should tend to moderate as sfc dewpoints inch
upward compared to earlier in the week, but valley fog should
continue to be a feature each night with ridging generally
dominating. The weakening front and passing shortwave could lead to
a bit more cloud cover later Wednesday night into Thursday morning
than currently reflected in sky grids.
Friday to Saturday night, a narrow upper ridge axis that shifts
north is progged by recent GFS and ECMWF runs from the Carolinas
across the southern Appalachians to near the confluence of the OH
and TN Rivers for Friday to Friday night while an upper low becomes
centered in the Arklatex vicinity by later Friday night or early
Saturday. At that point, moisture should begin to or have spread to
near the Gulf Coast or into the Gulf coast states and eventually
north into the Southern Appalachians and TN Valley and possibly into
the Lower OH Valley by later Saturday or Saturday night pending the
evolution of a tropical system in the Gulf while the upper low may
move to near the mid MS Valley vicinity by late Saturday night.
Guidance has uncertainty with the strength of this system with the
12Z operational GFS run stronger than the 06Z GFS run or the last two
operational ECMWF runs.
Across eastern KY this scenario would bring continued mild high
temperatures and increasing cloud cover by Saturday or Saturday
night into the end of the weekend and increasing moisture and the
possible approach of the upper system into the OH Valley could
result in showers by late Saturday night, though better chances
appear to be early next week.
Sunday to Monday, the upper low or trough that much of the guidance
has reaching the mid MS Valley late Sat night or early Sun and then
tracks it across the OH Valley region though Sun night or Mon with
upper ridging and height rises around or near the end of the period.
As previously mentioned this leads to higher chances for showers to
end the weekend, though model spread remains and how far north
appreciable moisture gets may also change. This timeframe may be our
next reasonable chance for measurable rainfall, but timing and
amounts are highly uncertain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
Valley fog will affect the JKL forecast area overnight and early
Tuesday, especially in southeast KY, bringing localized IFR or
worse conditions. TAF sites are not forecast to be affected.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 3:35 PM EDT---------------
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