LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 4, 6:52 AM EDT ...Aviation Discussion Updated...677
FXUS63 KLMK 041052
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
652 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026
...Aviation Discussion Updated...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Pleasant end to the weekend in store. Look for highs in the
upper 70s and a light breeze throughout the day.
* Early next week, clear skies and cooler temperatures return with
low temperatures in some areas dropping into the 40s/low 50s
Monday and Tuesday night. A bit breezy Monday afternoon.
* Wed-Sat brings a return of the 80s with overnight lows in the
upper 40s/50s; next weekend brings our next chance for rain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026
Overnight has been comfortable, with lows in the 50s across the CWA.
A few high level clouds remain in place, and low-lying areas could
see a shallow layer of fog early into the morning, especially across
the Bluegrass area. Tomorrow should be another lovely day, with
highs in the upper 70s and a light northerly breeze to keep things
comfortable. We sit along the leading edge of an upper-level trough
feeding a weak lower-level Low, which is reluctant to move in the
next day or two. This should leave rather clear skies tomorrow
night, allowing for radiational cooling down to the upper 40s and
lower 50s. As it meanders out of the area, a weak High sets up over
the Great Lakes tomorrow afternoon into the evening. Expect highs in
the low to mid 70s as a stiffer breeze sets up light CAA, with
sustained northeasterly speeds in the 10 knot range tomorrow
afternoon and a few gusts around the 15 knot mark. Relative humidity
in the 30% range will lead to a less muggy feel than we've seen in a
few days. Mostly clear skies and a light wind will lead to a solid
decoupling tomorrow night, bringing overnight lows in the lower 40s.
A low in an isolated valley of upper 30s isn't entirely out of the
question, either.
Tuesday - Saturday...
Dry conditions will continue through mid week and into late week as
surface high pressure controls the region beneath unremarkable/dry
NW flow aloft. After highs pretty close to normal (low to mid 70s)
on Tuesday, temps then trend around 10 degrees above normal through
mid to late week. Looking for low and mid 80s Wed-Sat with crisp
morning lows mostly in the upper 40s and low 50s.
The next chances for rain looks to arrive by late weekend as a slug
of tropical moisture works its way northward out of the Gulf into
the upper ridge established over the eastern CONUS. Earlier data had
suggested that a trough ejecting out of the western CONUS might have
shunted this system farther south and east, however latest data
suggests that western energy is much slower to eject. As a result,
could be set up for a round of widespread rainfall, which will
likely be welcome after another dry week. Right now, LREF
probabilities of 1" or greater rainfall late weekend into early next
week is around 10% across southern IN to 25% across southern KY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 651 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026
VFR conditions expected to continue through the day. Fog should burn
off at RGA just after sunrise. Light northerly/northeasterly
expected. High level clouds likely persist in at least a scattered
layer throughout the day before clearing out this evening and into
the overnight. Overnight should keep northerly winds, no cloud
cover, and fog is highly unlikely.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BJS/JPH
AVIATION...JPH
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 4, 6:52 AM EDT ...Aviation Discussion Updated...---------------
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